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By ALEX WICKHAM
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Good Monday morning.
DRIVING THE DAY
HARD RESET: Boris Johnson will continue the reset of his Downing Street operation this week in the hope that a new team of senior advisers and whips can restore his relationship with Conservative backbenchers and stem the flow of no-confidence letters threatening a vote on his future. Playbook is told further changes are anticipated imminently following the appointment of Steve Barclay as chief of staff and Guto Harri as director of communications over the weekend. The next phase is likely to involve a mini-reshuffle focused on the government whips office, with Chief Whip Mark Spencer expected to move to a different role and a new chief set to be appointed from the shadow whipping operation that has come to Johnson’s aid in recent weeks. As the prime minister shuffles the pack, his new team will be hoping the changes are enough to buy him some more time and prevent the number of letters sent to 1922 committee Chair Graham Brady from hitting the critical 54 threshold.
MINI-RESHUFFLE KLAXON: A small reshuffle is expected any day now. Anyone who has been following the news in Westminster since the Owen Paterson debacle in November will know Spencer’s time in charge of the whips office has been coming to an end, and a wider clearout of the whips is likely. The Sun’s Harry Cole says Spencer will get a new job, and hears a new minister for “Brexit opportunities” may be created to free up space. The Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman reported that Chris Pincher, who has been leading the shadow whipping team, and long-term Johnson ally Nigel Adams are the frontrunners to be the new chief. You would imagine Johnson may also want to take the opportunity to promote more women and secure jobs for some of the troublesome 2019 intake of MPs. The Mail on Sunday’s Glen Owen says the PM spent the weekend at Chequers calling MPs and preparing the next changes — Cole reveals he has canceled a trip to Australia due this week to complete the reorganization.
OPM of the masses: Barclay and Harri start their new jobs in No. 10 this morning. Downing Street staff expect there will be an immediate shake-up of how day-to-day life at the top of government runs in terms of things like the daily meetings. On Barclay’s wider objective of establishing a new “Office of the Prime Minister,” a government insider tells Playbook there is not yet a fixed idea of how it will be structured, though work is underway. The Times’ Chris Smyth says Johnson hopes to appoint highly rated NHS vaccines boss Emily Lawson as permanent secretary at the new department this week. Lawson was supposed to be running Johnson’s No. 10 “delivery unit” but was deployed back to the NHS to fix the booster rollout last year. In his Sunday Times column, Rob Colvile floated the idea of restructuring the Downing Street complex, from the PM’s living arrangements to the cramped and dilapidated offices to the messy and antiquated red box system.
Barclay banked: There has been some early criticism of the Barclay appointment centered around the view that he could not realistically take on the multiple roles of chief of staff, minister for the Cabinet Office, chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and chair of various Cabinet committees — as well as being MP for North East Cambridgeshire. Former No. 10 chiefs of staff Gavin Barwell, Nick Timothy and Jonathan Powell were all dismissive of the idea, though ex-No. 10 aide Dan Korski noted the arrangement was good enough for former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Ex-mandarin Jill Rutter has this long thread about how the new set-up is a “nightmare” for those who have to make it work. In any case, Playbook is told Barclay will focus on his chief of staff job and many of his ministerial duties will soon be offloaded to others, possibly at the coming mini-reshuffle.
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Further reading: Barclay’s appointment may not have immediately won the confidence of Twitter, but then the only audience that matters at the moment is Tory MPs. To most Westminster observers the former Brexit secretary might be slightly, well, boring, but he is liked across the Tory Party after slowly earning respect in several top jobs over the past few years. My POLITICO colleague Annabelle Dickson has a new and very timely profile of the man of the moment out this morning. Annabelle writes that while Barclay is not often spoken about as a big-hitter, parliamentary colleagues point to a no-nonsense and details-driven approach to politics evident since his early days as an MP on the public accounts committee. Barclay has a “quieter demeanor” than many colleagues, but a “sort of precision,” one MP reckons.
Rishi business: For Playbook’s money, the most interesting angle on Barclay’s appointment is that he is one of Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s closest allies in government. Sunak has taken a pasting from Cabinet colleagues in the papers over the past few days. One Cabinet minister told Saturday’s Times that he should be sacked for being so “blatant” about plotting against the PM. The Sunday Times’ Caroline Wheeler and Tim Shipman had more strong criticism of the chancellor, with one source blasting: “He has behaved in a childish, immature and petulant way. No one will ever elect someone so duplicitous as leader.” So what does it mean that Barclay — the man the Westminster rumor mill has tipped as Sunak’s future chancellor — is now running Johnson’s No. 10 team? In a crucial new line, the Mail on Sunday’s well-informed Glen Owen revealed Sunak was “closely involved” in the discussions with Johnson over the No. 10 changes. The key takeaway from the Barclay appointment could be that it is intended to improve relations between No. 10 and No. 11 and dissuade Sunak from wielding the knife.
Completing the set: Former Sky boss and current MP Andrew Griffith starts as No. 10’s new head of policy, replacing the resigning Munira Mirza. Lynton Crosby associate David Canzini is expected to be appointed to a formal role as a political adviser to the PM with responsibility for liaising with backbenchers in the coming days, the Sunday Times’ Gabriel Pogrund reported in an insidery piece on how Crosby and his allies will be working with the new operation. Then there is the inner guard of highly trusted Johnson aides that exists outside of official structures and is increasingly relied upon by the PM, as outlined at the top of the Shippers/Wheeler/Pogrund long-read.
Harri-kiri: Johnson’s new director of comms Guto Harri has wasted no time getting stuck in, directly trolling Johnson’s nemesis Dominic Cummings on Twitter within hours of landing the job. Harry Cole says Harri will take a harder line against the PM’s critics, with the new comms boss blasting the “appalling behavior” of “a powerful unelected official cultivating a high profile, disagreeing with the PM, undermining Cabinet, picking on SpAds and hiring weirdos” on Saturday. The new stance was also evident in Carrie Johnson’s response to Tory peer Michael Ashcroft’s book serialized in the Mail on Sunday, with her spokesperson’s statement that she is the target of a “brutal briefing campaign” by “bitter ex-officials” leading the BBC story and most others on the subject. A government insider told Playbook that Harri “doesn’t give a sh*t” about any mud flung at him and is happy to take a combative approach defending the PM.
Some of that mud: The MoS’ Glen Owen had a handy run-through of all Harri’s public comments criticizing Johnson over the past few years. Allies of Harri hope MPs will agree the PM needs a critical friend who has extensive comms experience. Some of that past experience may cause problems, though — Harry Cole has a top scoop revealing Harri lobbied the government on behalf of controversial Chinese tech giant Huawei, and was “directly involved in talks with senior officials trying to head off the landmark ban” on the firm from being involved in the U.K.’s 5G network. Harri resigned from his role at Hawthorn Advisers last night. Deputy Labour Leader Angela Rayner senses the first of many attacks: “We can’t have the revolving door from lobbying to Government see potential national security issues arise. We need full transparency from Guto Harri about all contact he had with Government in his former role and who his clients were.”
Will there be a vote? Tory MPs who spoke to Playbook over the weekend said the Barclay and Harri appointments would, as one put it, “only buy time,” and that Johnson still had to deliver on a raft of promised changes and “meaningful reform” to his operation to avoid a confidence vote very soon. As the reshuffle and new appointments are announced this week, you can bet that the other story playing out in the background will be the continuing ticking up of no-confidence letters. Many MPs spent the weekend considering their options and it seems plausible that more letters will go in as they return to Westminster from their constituencies. The immediate question is whether we get to 54 letters and a vote of confidence this week. The Sunday Times had some intel from Johnson’s shadow whipping operation putting the number at between 35 and 45. The i’s Jane Merrick reckons more than 100 Tory MPs will vote against Johnson in a confidence vote. Though since 180 need to vote to remove him, that suggests the rebels are still some way off. (Your evergreen caveat that we don’t know, it can all change and it’s all to play for.)
Also today: Cummings is apparently dropping more gear about the funding of the Downing Street flat refurb on his Substack. An early test for the new No. 10 comms team.
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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with work and pensions questions, followed by any post-weekend UQs or statements … After that MPs will move through the annual announcement of the benefits and pensions uprating … and then there will be consideration of Lords amendments to the Northern Ireland (Ministers, Elections and Petitions of Concern) Bill.
BACKLOG LOGJAM: There is another important domestic story breaking — the revelation from ITV’s Robert Peston that the Treasury has prevented an announcement due today on the NHS’ “elective recovery plan” to help clear the waiting list of 6 million people needing treatment. The plan would have set out steps showing how the government plans to clear the backlog, one of the key policy issues facing the rest of this administration. It was due to be announced by Johnson and Health Secretary Sajid Javid today. According to a briefing to Peston, “The Treasury delayed the recovery plan. The Treasury says that’s because it wants to secure maximum value for money. But it’s pretty obvious it’s about Treasury reluctance to rescue the PM.” The Telegraph’s Charles Hymas splashes the story.
It comes as … waiting times for cancer referrals and treatment hit a record high, the Guardian’s Denis Campbell reports. The Sunday Times’ Shaun Lintern also had a must-read report on the shocking state of NHS maternity care, which only a fool would think is the sort of thing politicians might care about, rather than doing each other in and looking at Twitter.
Why the delay? According to NHS Confederation boss Matthew Taylor: “Increasingly getting the sense that Johnson now faces the same (but more intense and short term) challenges Tony Blair had in his third term, namely that HMT is loath to agree to any No. 10 plans involving money, as the chancellor sees these as opportunistic and wasted on a dying administration.” The Telegraph quotes sources “citing concerns over value for money after deadlines for hitting treatment targets slipped as a result of the Omicron surge.” The Treasury tells Peston the plan wasn’t ready and that the NHS wanted to pause as well. But ITV’s pol ed adds: “This is disputed by those working for the Department of Health and the NHS.” Javid is on the morning broadcast round, which should be entertaining.
Taking a step back: After months of clashes between Johnson and Sunak over policy and decision-making, an unseemly briefing war between No. 10 and No. 11, huge Tory arguments about tax rises and the direction of the government — all in the context of multiple plots to remove the PM — the chancellor has chosen this moment to delay one of the most important policy announcements the government will make this parliament … in the week that Johnson is desperate for good news stories as he fights for his premiership. Interesting one for Steve Barclay to deal with when he gets to his desk this morning.
TWO-DAY RUSSIAN VICTORY: The Washington Post reports that Russia is close to completing preparations for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine that could overthrow the government in Kyiv within two days, leaving tens of thousands of civilians dead and a humanitarian crisis launched — all according to U.S. intelligence assessments. As of Friday there were 83 Russian battalion tactical groups ready for a possible assault, up from 60 two weeks ago, and at about 70 percent of the level Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to have in place. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the story shows Russia’s “claims to have no plans to invade are false” and reiterated that the U.K. would “raise the cost” to Moscow if they go ahead with any invasion. Truss flies to Russia on Thursday — she also has Brexit talks with the European Commission’s Maroš Šefčovič in London this week too.
AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW: Emmanuel Macron has hinted at the possibility of Western concessions to Russia and downplayed fears of invasion, ahead of a trip today for talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The French president appears to be taking a different line on Ukraine/Russia than many other world leaders, arguing in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche that Putin’s goal is not conquest of Ukraine but instead to gain security guarantees from NATO and EU — something Macron said Western powers would need to be “realistic” about in talks with Russia. POLITICO’s Laura Kayali has the write-up, while Clea Caulcutt, Giorgio Leali and David Herszenhorn have a big scene-setting piece on Macron’s peacemaking mission and his thinking behind taking a more “accommodating” line on Russia.
**Non-communicable diseases — the Silent Killers — are the No.1 cause of death worldwide. In a series of articles over the next three months, POLITICO’s health team will report on the devastation they wreak, the search for novel ways to treat them and the controversial policies aimed at preventing them. Read chapter two today.**
NI ON IMPOSSIBLE: POLITICO’s MTUK texts in that the Northern Ireland bill mentioned above will face amendment votes this evening before going back to the Lords for final approval, as the government aims to rush it through to buy more time in the row over trade with Northern Ireland. One of the amendments put forward tonight would give Stormont a lifeline to keep power-sharing intact before May’s planned Assembly election. After First Minister Paul Givan quit last week, the DUP and Sinn Féin have been left with seven days to negotiate on a new power-sharing arrangement — the amendment would extend that period to six weeks.
Race against time: The bill needs to be pushed through this week for it to kick in before the seven-day deadline is reached. If it fails, the government will have to decide whether to bring the upcoming Stormont election two months forward. “Ideally it needs to receive royal assent before Thursday,” a government official told MTUK. Even if the bill misses the target, the suggestion in government ranks is that ministers will avoid bringing the election forward, seeing as things will shut down for the election at the end of March regardless.
EEK: Plenty of follow-up this morning for comments by Tesco’s John Allan to the BBC’s Sophie Raworth, warning that “the worst is yet to come” and that supermarket prices could rise by 5 percent. “We are impacted by rising energy prices, our suppliers are impacted by rising energy prices. So the likelihood is that that inflation figure will rise,” he said. The BBC has his comments.
COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: The Post Office and several high street banks will give evidence on bank branch closures at the Scottish affairs committee (3 p.m.) … The Treasury committee looks at productivity after the pandemic with former Cities Growth Commission Chairman Jim O’Neill (3.15 p.m.) … The leveling up committee examines regulation of social housing (4 p.m.) … and the public accounts committee will quiz BEIS officials, EDF and the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority on seven nuclear power stations which will stop producing electricity over the next decade (4 p.m.).
BRAND AMT: Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan has given an interview to PolHome’s Georgina Bailey, where she discusses her efforts to build “Brand Britain” and makes a defense of her Australian trade deal, which has been given a battering by the National Farmers’ Union. AMT also told Bailey she wouldn’t run for the top job if a vacancy was to emerge: “One hundred per cent definitely not. I’m very happy being third in the rankings of the ConservativeHome [net Cabinet satisfaction] polls, that works for me.”
DORRIES TO THE GULF: Nadine Dorries is leaving SW1 and the Johnson cheerleading circuit behind and heading to the Gulf to sell the U.K.’s art, culture, sport and tourism today, POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson texts in. During the visit she will be selling Britain’s year of celebrations — the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games and Unboxed: Creativity in the U.K., a.k.a the Festival of Brexit — at the Dubai Expo and meeting the Saudi women’s football team, DCMS said in a press statement ahead of the visit.
JOBS ARMY RETREATS: 12,000 Universal Credit work coaches have been told by the DWP they will need to reapply for their own jobs, the Mirror’s Dan Bloom reports. During the pandemic the number of UC work coaches doubled as claims surged, but now many of these face being let go with the DWP only committing to offering permanent roles to the “majority.”
YESTERDAY’S UK COVID STATS: 54,095 positive cases. In the last week there have been 584,317 positive cases, ⬇️ 31,871 on the previous week … 75 deaths within 28 days of a positive test. In the last week 1,713 deaths have been reported, ⬇️ 130 on the previous week. As of the latest data 14,634 COVID patients are in hospital.
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on cladding, a royal commission on the criminal justice system and plans to amend the Highway Code … Followed by consideration of Commons amendments to the Leasehold Reform (Ground Rent) Bill … The report stage of the National Insurance Contributions Bill … and the second reading of the Judicial Review and Courts Bill.
Libs in the Lords: The Lib Dems are putting up an amendment to the National Insurance Contributions Bill that would see freeports only able to qualify for tax relief if they establish a public register of business owners operating there, as part of an effort to prevent them from being used to launder dirty money. The Lib Dem peer Susan Kramer told the Independent’s Adam Forrest that current freeport plans risk “opening our doors even further to Kremin-linked oligarchs at the moment when we should be putting a stop to this interference.” Peers will vote on the measure this evening.
STRANGERS LIVES ON: Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has defended parliament’s Strangers Bar, telling Radio 5 Live in an interview due to air today that people in parliament work long hours and that the Westminster village needs an “outlet.” He claimed that if the pub was to shut — as some have called for amid rowdy behavior — the Red Lion would end up “filling out onto the streets”.
Another happy reader? POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson has a fantastic piece on how the queen is hooked on political gossip. A little-known tradition of the U.K. system means a junior member of the government whips’ office writes a private daily email to the queen with a colorful account of what’s being going on in parliament that day. Former dispatch writers said they were instructed to write “the inside track” because the queen reads the newspapers and listens to BBC Radio 4’s Today program. Annabelle’s piece really is worth reading for the quotes from former whips tasked with finding the best goss for Her Maj.
**A message from Electronic Arts: The Play Together/Play Smart campaign from Internet Matters and Electronic Arts aims to help more parents set up parental controls on the video games their children play. Of those parents the campaign reached, a majority (55%) acted and set up parental controls on their children’s games console. This increased to three-fifths (61%) among those who had recently purchased a games console in the run up to Christmas. EA believes that parental controls, coupled with an ongoing and open discussion within the family about play time, spend, age-appropriate games and online behavior, can help ensure that children enjoy a positive experience while playing video games.**
MEDIA ROUND
Health Secretary Sajid Javid broadcast round: Sky News (7.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.20 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … ITV GMB (8.30 a.m.).
Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jon Ashworth broadcast round: GB News (7.30 a.m.) … ITV GMB (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (8.35 a.m.).
Also on the Today program: Deputy Chief Executive of NHS Providers Saffron Cordery (7.10 a.m.) … Former Foreign Secretary David Miliband (7.30 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain: Former Handforth Parish Council Clerk Jackie Weaver (6.40 a.m.) … Boris Johnson biographer Sonia Purnell (7.35 a.m.).
Also on Sky News breakfast: Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve (8.30 a.m.) … Former Tory adviser Claire Pearsall (8.30 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Former No. 10 SpAd Jimmy McLoughlin (8.20 a.m.) … Green London Assembly Member Zack Polanski (8.40 a.m.).
Julia Hartley-Brewer breakfast show (talkRADIO): Tory MP Richard Fuller (8.05 a.m.) … Tory MP Bob Seely (8.20 a.m.) … Ukrainian Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko (9.05 a.m.) … Tory peer and author Matt Ridley (9.50 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio breakfast: Children’s Commissioner Rachel de Souza (7.35 a.m.) … Mark McDonald, barrister who represented Michael Stone (8.05 a.m.) … Bishop Alan Wilson (8.20 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Tory peer Dan Hannan … Home affairs committee Chairwoman Diana Johnson … Former Northern Irish FM Arlene Foster … The Observer’s Sonia Sodha.
The Briefing with Gloria De Piero (GB News 12 p.m.): Education committee Chairman Robert Halfon … Labour MP Marsha de Cordova … Shadow Employment Rights Minister Justin Madders … Tory MP Laura Farris.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): SNP MP John Nicolson … Crossbench peer John Bird … Conservative Young Women Chair Ella Robertson McKay … Columnist for the i Kate Maltby.
Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Sun’s Harry Cole and the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)
Daily Express: Honored my ‘darling wife’ will be queen.
Daily Mail: Queen gave Camilla plan her blessing years ago.
Daily Mirror: Be blood donor hero.
Daily Star: Valentine’s whiteout.
Financial Times: EU prepares gas options if Ukraine crisis hits supplies.
i: PM in crisis — 100 MPs are ready to vote against him.
Metro: Tesco boss — The worst is to come.
POLITICO UK: Steve Barclay — The backroom fixer sent to save Boris Johnson.
PoliticsHome: Tory moderates have finally lost patience with ‘populist crap’ from Boris Johnson.
The Daily Telegraph: Treasury blocks PM’s plan to clear NHS backlog.
The Guardian: Half a million people face delays in seeing NHS cancer specialist.
The Independent: Can PM win back voters who put him in No 10.
The Sun: Busy Lizzie.
The Times: Johnson hits reset button with a new No 10 team.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ⛅️⛅️⛅️ Fairly sunny in spells. Highs of 10C.
MEA CULPA: After a long week Friday’s Playbook mixed up a Today program presenter and the archbishop of Canterbury — apologies to Justin Webb and Justin Welby. Would’ve been a decent scoop for “new gigs.”
NEW GIG: Emma McNicholas — who has been working for the Labour Party for 10 years and until recently was political adviser to the former Shadow Attorney General Charlie Falconer — is joining the Tony Blair Institute as a politics manager. Follow her here.
NEW GIG II: Congratulations to ace Times Radio producer Sandra Glab, who is joining John Pienaar’s Drive team. Here’s her tweet.
ICYMI: The BBC’s Emma Barnett announced on Friday she will be leaving her Newsnight presenting duties after three years. Here’s the tweet.
CONGRATULATIONS: To housing campaigner Kwajo Tweneboa, who has landed £10,000 and some brand new camera equipment from Dragons’ Den dragon Steven Bartlett following his videos exposing Britain’s social housing scandal.
BIRTHDAYS: Tory peer and Times columnist Matt Ridley … Former U.K. High Commissioner to India Dominic Asquith … U.K. Ambassador to Belgium Martin Shearman … Campaign to Protect Rural England chief Crispin Truman … and POLITICO tot (son of Deputy Editor-in-Chief Kate Day) Teo Elia.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.
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Alex Wickham
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/hard-reset-mini-reshuffle-klaxon-rishi-business/
