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By ALEX WICKHAM
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Good Tuesday morning.
DRIVING THE DAY
TAKING FLIGHT: Boris Johnson leaves his domestic turmoil behind as he flies to Ukraine today in a show of support for the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the face of ongoing Russian aggression. The prime minister is heading east this afternoon and will hold talks with Zelenskiy in Kyiv — we can expect words and pictures later on. In pre-flight remarks briefed to journalists, Johnson said: “It is the right of every Ukrainian to determine how they are governed. As a friend and a democratic partner, the U.K. will continue to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty in the face of those who seek to destroy it. We urge Russia to step back and engage in dialogue to find a diplomatic resolution and avoid further bloodshed.” The PM is also announcing £88 million of new funding to promote stable governance in Ukraine and reduce its reliance on Russian energy supplies. POLITICO’s Andrew McDonald has more.
Putin off the call: The timing of Monday’s Commons statement on Partygate meant Johnson canceled a planned call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (The Russian Embassy clearly has someone different running its Twitter account nowadays because in years gone by they’d have lived for a moment like that.) No. 10 say they will try to reschedule. Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday held their second phone call in four days. The New York Times notes Macron’s more nuanced position on Russia compared to the steadfast approach of the U.S. and U.K., reporting: “With the retirement of the German leader Angela Merkel, Mr. Macron has sought to position himself as Europe’s chief voice in international affairs, casting himself as a NATO ally who is independent of Washington and has open channels to U.S. adversaries.”
Get well soon: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss had been due to accompany Johnson on the trip but she is isolating after testing positive for COVID on Monday evening. Truss on Monday strengthened Britain’s sanctions regime to allow the government to target Russian banks, energy companies and oligarchs if Putin does launch an invasion. POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo has the details. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is in Croatia today and Slovenia later this week, after visiting Hungary Monday, as he tours the region trying to deescalate tensions, Cristina texts in.
How will Johnson go down? The PM can expect a much better reception from politicians and journalists in Kyiv than he has had in Westminster recently. Kyiv’s Mayor Vitali Klitschko (yes the boxer) told POLITICO he was grateful to Johnson for his support over the past few days: “It’s very important for Ukraine to have political support from our friends — without friends we don’t survive. We are talking about delivery of defensive weapons, sanctions against aggressors — if this happens, we have a lot of leverage to stop the idea to attack Ukraine.” By contrast, Klitschko has criticized Germany’s muted response, claiming the country “has to decide which side” it is on. Kyiv media recently lavished praise on an article by Wallace on the crisis, published on gov.uk two weeks ago, that also won widespread plaudits from foreign policy experts.
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Meanwhile in New York: The U.S. and Russia clashed at the United Nations Security Council on Monday, as America accused Russia of undermining international peace and security by massing troops on the Ukrainian border. “Russia’s actions strike at the very heart of the U.N. Charter,” said U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield. “This is as clear and consequential a threat to peace and security as anyone can imagine.” Russian U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya accused the U.S. of “unacceptable interference in the domestic affairs of our state.” POLITICO’s David Herszenhorn has the story.
Latest from the White House: U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters in the Oval Office overnight: “We continue to urge diplomacy as the best way forward. But with Russia continuing its buildup of its forces around Ukraine, we are ready no matter what happens.”
Latest Russian response: Moscow has now delivered a written response to Washington’s reply to Russia’s demands for security guarantees aimed at deescalating the crisis, the Washington Post reports, though it has no details of what was in the Russian reply.
PARTYGATE FALLOUT
JUDGMENT DEFERRED: Boris Johnson appears to have survived the release of Sue Gray’s Partygate “update” without a flood of no-confidence letters triggering a vote on his position, as Conservative MPs seemingly decided to wait until the Metropolitan Police conclude their investigation before settling his fate. The pared-back Gray report was always going to fall short of accusing Johnson of breaking COVID laws, though it still contained fierce criticisms that No. 10 was guilty of a failure of leadership and its actions were “difficult to justify.” The big picture is that 12 alleged Downing Street “gatherings” are being looked at by the police, including four that Johnson was said to have attended. But for a prime minister who is fighting day by day to save his job, he made it through the partial publication of Gray’s findings without a leadership challenge materializing. The Westminster consensus this morning is that Johnson may have delayed his judgment day by months — until the moment the police decide whether he personally broke the laws he set for the nation during the pandemic.
Lifeline: In their first-class wrap of the day, POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson and Esther Webber judge that Johnson has been handed a “lifeline of sorts” after the Met’s intervention last week blocked Gray from publishing her full findings. “Westminster is still waiting. And while Johnson may have survived Gray’s first interjection, the prime minister emerges severely weakened,” Annabelle and Esther conclude. The only question that really mattered following the Gray update was whether Tory MPs’ no-confidence letters would reach the key 54 threshold. As ever, we don’t know where they’re at and Tory politics can always change very quickly. But the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg summed up the judgment of most observers at close of play last night with her assessment that “Tory nerves seem to be calming a bit.”
Savile row: At one point on Monday afternoon, it was starting to look like events were slipping out of Johnson’s grasp. Most Tories who Playbook spoke to felt the PM misjudged his response to Labour leader Keir Starmer in the Commons, and as Tory MPs led by Theresa May piled on the opprobrium the situation did appear to be heading south. Johnson attended a meeting of his parliamentary party last night needing to dig himself out of a huge hole. “He understood he had no option but to deliver, commit to a full set of reforms and give MPs the political speech of his life,” one Tory MP told Playbook. The consensus of those present who spoke to Playbook was that he did enough to bring possible letter-writers back from the brink.
Inside the unofficial ’22: Johnson entered last night’s meeting flanked by Rishi Sunak — proof, Tory MPs concluded, that the chancellor had decided not to move against the PM — and Home Secretary Priti Patel. He spoke at the front of the room alongside 1922 committee chair and letter-counter Graham Brady, and his deputy PM Dominic Raab. Liz Truss was in the middle of the packed room just minutes before testing positive for COVID, so we are in proper superspreader event territory. “Almost the entire parliamentary party” was there as Johnson made the case to stick with him, according to one MP. The PM spoke for around 15 minutes before taking every question from MPs present for more than an hour.
Change is coming: The key development at the meeting was a new cast-iron commitment by Johnson to his MPs to listen to their views and take what they say more seriously, several Tory MPs agreed. One said Johnson made a tacit recognition that he and his Downing Street team have been high-handed in the past and not acted on their concerns about the policy direction of the government. “He realized today that the threat is real and he can’t just bluster his way through,” one MP told Playbook. Another confirmed Johnson “laid it on thick about need to change political operation.” This was what “won the room round,” the MP added. “As soon as he said that the room was immediately on his side and it was back to maximum Boris, election-winning Boris.”
What that means in practice: There was a pledge for a new system of backbench policy boards to help connect No. 10 and MPs, and Johnson announced at the despatch box earlier that he would set up a new Office of the Prime Minister with its own permanent secretary. The news from the PM that he was receiving external advice from his Australian former strategist Lynton Crosby was well-received. But backbenchers who spoke to Playbook were more interested in the PM’s promise to listen rather than the minutiae of how Downing Street would be structured. “There’s no going back from what he said. He delivered on what MPs want and therefore he is probably safe,” an MP said. An MP who is critical of Johnson told ITV’s Anushka Asthana: “There is no way we are getting 54 letters.” That shift was encapsulated by rebel Gary Sambrook’s decision to U-turn on his previous call for the PM to go.
50 shades darker: There was also relief among MPs that Johnson strongly committed to publishing the Gray report in full once the police had concluded, something he had refused to do earlier in the day. Johnson’s allies said this was the first example of him listening and reacting to MPs after backbenchers demanded it would be released in full. Former Chief Whip Mark Harper, veteran MP Julian Lewis and former minister Andrew Jones all used their speaking time in the Commons to urge Johnson to publish the full report as soon as possible. Defense committee Chairman Tobias Ellwood added his voice on Twitter, saying the PM would no longer have his support if he failed to publish the report in full. The backflip came within hours, which is pretty fast on the Marcus Rashford scale of Boris Johnson U-turns.
I will wear my heart upon my sleeve: Color of the night via the Times’ Henry Zeffman, who reports that Johnson compared himself to Othello, always seeing the best in people, unlike Dominic Cummings’ Iago.
Where this goes next: Of course, just because Johnson got to the end of the day on Monday, doesn’t mean he’s out of the woods. The Gray update focused minds that the police are looking at four gatherings that directly involve the PM, as the Times’ Steve Swinford and Oli Wright note in their splash, including one in the Downing Street flat on the night Dominic Cummings left his job. The Sun’s Harry Cole, Natasha Clark and Kate Ferguson say the cops could interview the PM and his wife Carrie any day now. A fixed penalty notice for Johnson on any one of these four could be enough to trigger a confidence vote. The Met said on Monday that they’ve been handed some 300 photos of Downing Street events, which will not go down well if they ever see the light of day. The Mail has an excellent double page spread on pages 4 and 5 laying out the parties being looked at and which ones the PM is said to have attended.
The main danger: Playbook’s reading of the 12 events being investigated by the police is still that the May 20, 2020 party — the infamous BYOB event in the Downing Street garden — is the one that is most potentially perilous for Johnson. Given the email from his Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds confirming it was a booze-up rather than a work event, this would appear to mean possible fines for those who attended, especially if they were aware of the situation in advance (Remember: Johnson says he wasn’t, Cummings says he was.) Then there’s the question of whether Johnson misled the House on his knowledge of the event. Even if the Met don’t whack him with a fixed penalty notice — and let’s face it that would be a pretty major decision for a senior police officer to make — the publication of Sue Gray’s full report could still contain extremely damaging new revelations.
Then there are the mutinous MPs: Another Tory MP publicly withdrew his support from Johnson on Monday, and it remains possible that many more might do so in private. Former Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell said: “I am deeply concerned by these events, and very concerned indeed by some of the things he has said from that despatch box and has said to the British public and to our constituents … I have to tell him that he no longer enjoys my support.” And red wall MP Aaron Bell added: “It seems that a lot of people attended events in May 2020. The one I recall attending was my grandmother’s funeral. She was a wonderful woman. As well as her love for her family, she served her community as a councillor and she served Dartford Conservative Association loyally for many years. I drove for three hours from Staffordshire to Kent. There were only 10 people at the funeral; many people who loved her had to watch online. I did not hug my siblings. I did not hug my parents. I gave a eulogy and afterwards I did not even go into her house for a cup of tea; I drove back, for three hours, from Kent to Staffordshire. Does the prime minister think I am a fool?”
What Labour is saying: Keir Starmer’s Commons speech on Monday was extremely strongly worded and succeeded in getting Johnson to lose his rag. The Labour leader writes in the Mirror today along the same vein: “The Prime Minister took us all for fools. He held your sacrifice in contempt. He insulted your intelligence. His latest argument is that he couldn’t possibly know if there was a party in his house or his office or if he was there when it happened — that he needs the police to tell him. But his behaviour doesn’t lessen what we have achieved as a country. It only lessens him and those who continue to parrot his nonsense. My message to the Prime Minister is simple — the British people aren’t fools. They never believed any of it. He should do the decent thing and resign. Of course, he won’t. He is a man without shame.”
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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Treasury questions, followed by any UQs or statements … and then Labour has opposition day debates on tackling fraud and preventing government waste, and on calling for a windfall tax on oil and gas producers.
Defection watch: Keir Starmer phoned Rosie Duffield on Sunday night after she said she was considering her future within the Labour Party and has taken away her concerns, Playbook’s Eleni Courea hears. As Eleni reported in September, Tory whips have made clear to Duffield that the door is open to her should she want to defect, and lots of Tory MPs have privately offered their support to her following her tweets over the weekend. But the Canterbury MP may be more attracted to the idea of sitting as an independent if she does jump ship.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD LOVE TO TALK ABOUT: Ministers will unveil measures in the leveling up white paper today aimed at raising education standards in 55 English areas — 95 percent of which are outside London and the South East — that currently have the weakest outcomes. The paper will also contain detail of a new national mission, which will push to ensure that by 2030, 90 percent of children leaving primary school have reached the expected standard in reading, writing and maths. The Guardian’s Sally Weale has a write-up.
COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: Tech Minister Chris Philp will face questions from the DCMS committee on loopholes in the draft Online Safety Bill (10 a.m.) … The environment, food and rural affairs committee hosts Environment Secretary George Eustice … and the foreign affairs committee will take evidence from Ukrainian Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko in a session on Ukraine (2.30 p.m.). Full list here.
YESTERDAY’S UK COVID STATS: 92,368 positive cases. In the last week there have been 620,109 positive cases, ⬇️ 32,570 on the previous week … 51 deaths within 28 days of a positive test. In the last week 1,838 deaths have been reported, ⬇️ 5 on the previous week. As of the latest data 15,938 COVID patients are in hospital.
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on legal aid, EU imports and value for money with overseas travel arrangements for ministers … Followed by the second reading of the Commercial Rent (Coronavirus) Bill and the second day of the Nationality and Borders Bill’s committee stage.
ANOTHER UNION BUST UP: The devolved administrations have accused the government of breaking an election manifesto promise, the FT’s Peter Foster, Mure Dickie and Jude Webber report, over the distribution of the Shared Prosperity Fund that was created to distribute returned EU regional funds to the regions and nations. In 2019 the Conservatives’ manifesto pledged that the fund would “at a minimum” match the £1.5 billion a year of EU regional funds, but the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish administrations have all claimed they face being left hundreds of millions out of pocket after the government unveiled a fund worth an average of just £870 million a year over the next three years. Welsh Economy Minister Vaughan Gething told the FT the difference in promise and delivery represented a “straightforward breach of the manifesto pledge.”
HONG KONG’S HOMESICK EXILES: POLITICO’s Stuart Lau has a top read about the plight of newly arrived Hong Kongers in Britain, who are celebrating their first Lunar New Year away from home today. Worth your time.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: For many businesses the struggle to survive the pandemic is far from over. Everyday our customers are facing into new challenges, and our 1,100 business specialists are there to provide the financial and practical help companies need as they navigate the road to recovery. Our Business Recovery Hub provides practical tips and resources to support businesses, whether that be help with improving cash flow, guidance on delaying payments or adapting their business to meet ever-changing customer needs. Find out more about how our support for businesses will help Britain recover here.**
MEDIA ROUND
Deputy PM Dominic Raab broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … ITV GMB (8.25 a.m.).
Labour leader Keir Starmer broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (7.10 a.m.) … ITV GMB (7.35 a.m.) … Sky News (7.50 a.m.).
Also on BBC Breakfast: Lib Dems leader Ed Davey (6.35 a.m.) … SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford (6.50 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain (ITV): SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford (7.15 a.m.).
Also on Sky News breakfast: Former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw (7.30 a.m.) … SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford (8.20 a.m.) … Former Tory SpAd Mo Hussein and former Johnson adviser Will Walden (8.30 a.m.) … Standards committee Chairman Chris Bryant (8.40 a.m.) … Lib Dems leader Ed Davey (9.05 a.m.) … Former CPS Chief Crown Prosecutor Nazir Afzal (9.30 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Former Johnson adviser Will Walden (8.50 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio breakfast: Former Foreign Office Minister Rory Stewart (8.15 a.m.) … Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden (8.35 a.m.) … Former Conservative Party leader William Hague and former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale (9.10 a.m.).
- Julia Hartley-Brewer breakfast show (talkRADIO): Former No. 10 chief of staff Gavin Barwell (7.05 a.m.) … Former Tory SpAd Mo Hussein (7.20 a.m.) … COVID Recovery Group Chairman Mark Harper (8.05 a.m.) … Former Defense Minister Gerald Howarth (8.20 a.m.) … Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine (9.20 a.m.).
GB News breakfast: Tory MP David Davis (8 a.m.) … Shadow Treasury Minister Pat McFadden (8.50 a.m.).
Good Morning Scotland (BBC Radio Scotland): Lib Dem MP Wendy Chamberlain (6.50 a.m.) … Shadow Scotland Secretary Ian Murray (7.05 a.m.) … SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford (7.35 a.m.) … Scotland Secretary Alister Jack (8.05 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC One 12.15 p.m.): Tory MP Siobhan Baillie … Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Kyle … The Telegraph’s Christopher Hope … The Sheffield Star Editor Nancy Fielder.
The Briefing with Gloria De Piero (GB News noon): Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith … Shadow Leveling Up Secretary Lisa Nandy … ConservativeHome’s Henry Hill … Polling guru John Curtice.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry … Lib Dem MP Layla Moran … Unaffiliated peer Claire Fox … Business commentator David Buik.
Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Observer’s Sonia Sodha and the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)
Daily Express: Yes PM, you got it wrong … now get it right.
Daily Mail: Now publish the whole damn thing.
Daily Mirror: Zero shame.
Daily Star: 50 shades of Gray.
Financial Times: Johnson rejects calls to quit after Gray’s scathing report on parties.
HuffPost UK: Johnson on borrowed time as Tories attack.
i: PM pleads for his job.
Metro: A failure of leadership.
POLITICO UK: How Boris Johnson saved his job and lost his premiership.
PoliticsHome: Vulnerable Boris Johnson clings on after ‘lashing out’ in his response to first Sue Gray drop.
The Daily Telegraph: PM to ask Gray for new report.
The Guardian: ‘Failures of leadership’ — Tories turn on PM over Gray report.
The Independent: ‘Failures of leadership.’
The Sun: Mamma Mia.
The Times: Police investigate PM’s four lockdown parties.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ☁️☁️☁️ Light cloud and breezy. Highs of 13C.
BIRTHDAYS: Commons Deputy Speaker Eleanor Laing … Falkirk MP John McNally … Former Defense Secretary John Nott turns 90 … Former Labour MP Teresa Pearce … Former Armed Forces Minister Adam Ingram … Clean Up Gambling Director Matt Zarb-Cousin … Iceland’s Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald producer Grace Stranger.
**On the eve of the EU-AU Summit, John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention will join POLITICO Live’s event “The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic: hope or disillusion?” on February 15 at 4:00 p.m. CET. Will you? Register now!**
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Alex Wickham
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/taking-flight-judgment-deferred-inside-the-unofficial-22/
