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By ALEX WICKHAM
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Good Tuesday morning.
DRIVING THE DAY
DISOBEDIENT SERVANT: The Boris Johnson vs. Dominic Cummings death match is approaching its endgame after the prime minister’s former chief aide turned sworn enemy accused him of lying to parliament over what he knew about Partygate. The Cummings charge: That he warned Johnson his Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds was organizing a rule-breaking drinks party in the Downing Street garden on May 20, 2020, but the PM dismissed his concerns and attended the event. The Johnson denial: That this is “not true,” the PM was not warned about the event in advance, and he “believed implicitly that this was a work event.” The answer to who is telling the truth could now prove critical for Johnson’s premiership.
THE REYNOLDS PAMPHLET: In an update on his Substack on Monday evening, Cummings laid out his version of events for May 20, 2020. He claims that after Reynolds sent his now legendary email asking staff to attend “socially distanced drinks” in the garden and “bring your own booze,” both Cummings and another senior official told Reynolds his bash was against the rules. According to Cummings, Reynolds defended the idea and said he’d check with the PM. Cummings writes: “I said to the PM something like: Martin’s invited the building to a drinks party, this is what I’m talking about, you’ve got to grip this madhouse. The PM waved it aside.”
HURRICANE: These allegations challenge Johnson’s statement to the Commons last Wednesday, in which the prime minister said he had believed it was a work event. His words in full: “When I went into that garden just after six on 20 May, 2020, to thank groups of staff before going back into my office 25 minutes later to continue working, I believed implicitly that this was a work event. With hindsight I should have sent everyone back inside. I should have found some other way to thank them.” The Guardian has a run-through of all the times Johnson has denied any parties took place and insisted he broke no rules.
ONE LAST TIME: Here’s the No. 10 line in full: “It is untrue that the prime minister was warned about the event in advance. As he said, he believed implicitly that this was a work event.”
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Lawyers, please check: There is much interest in Johnson’s use of the word “implicitly” amid speculation it may give him some legal leeway. QC and COVID regulations expert Adam Wagner reckons: “If I was the PM’s lawyer, I would tell him that since the 20 May party was in his garden, he can’t have committed an offence under the regulations but could be liable as an accessory to others’ crimes if he knew it was a party and encouraged it. So it is very important indeed that he did not think it was a party at the time, was not warned and only ‘in hindsight’ has he seen any issues.”
Swear to tell the truth: Cummings’ case for the prosecution is that the PM knew it was a rule-breaking party beforehand, but went along with it anyway, and is now not telling the truth about what happened. He writes: “The events of 20 May alone, never mind the string of other events, mean the PM lied to Parliament about parties. Not only me but other eyewitnesses who discussed this at the time would swear under oath this is what happened.”
Can any of this be proved? It remains to be seen whether any written evidence will emerge to support Cummings’ claims, or whether he will be interviewed by civil service investigator Sue Gray. At the moment, it’s the PM’s word against his former aide’s — although several journalists including the Sunday Times’ Dominic Lawson, the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges and the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg all have anonymous former officials claiming to corroborate Cummings’ account. It would certainly put Johnson in a more difficult position if any of them were to go on the record, although it is important to note that many former officials involved in these events were embroiled in the Johnson-Cummings civil war themselves.
Not quite swearing on oath: ITV’s Robert Peston blogs: “I know who sent the email to Martin Reynolds on 20 May 2020 telling him the planned ‘bring your own booze’ party should not go ahead — though the sender tells me he does not want to be seen as agent provocateur against the prime minister and has asked me not to name him.” Did the mystery sender also warn the PM? “I probably did but I honestly can’t remember,” he tells Peston. Gray has asked the sender to be interviewed by her investigation and he appears to have agreed.
Lull latest: It is fair to say that before the Cummings blog post dropped, Monday had been looking noticeably steadier for No. 10 in terms of the “mood” of the Conservative MPs who will decide Johnson’s fate. Two Tory MPs suggested to Playbook that Cummings’ intervention may actually help Johnson with the parliamentary party because it will remind them the vengeful former aide has been leading the Partygate campaign. One said that if there’s one person who can unite Tory MPs behind the PM, it’s Cummings.
Is Operation Red Meat working? My POLITICO colleague Annabelle Dickson is very well-connected among Conservative MPs and found “the mood is much calmer” after spending the day talking to backbenchers yesterday. She sent over this detailed stocktake which Playbook recommends as the best intel on Tory backbench thinking you’ll see this morning.
Annabelle writes: One former Cabinet minister said the anger in their constituency had been less than anticipated. Lots of emails, people are frustrated and angry, but they still think the PM has a chance to put things right, they said. There was a realization among some MPs that the Tory Party would not recover from a leadership election if it took place now. Big caveat: they’re still waiting to see what facts Gray produces. Another former Cabinet minister said they could now see a way through for Johnson if the Gray report doesn’t find anything new. Other MPs expressed a sense that none of the leadership contenders are ready, and that none of them want a contest now.
The Omicron effect: Annabelle also detected a sense of vindication in some quarters that the government’s decision to impose Plan B COVID restrictions in the first place was wrong. The timing of the PM’s call on Omicron was mentioned, with some MPs believing that with restrictions being lifted — and the comparison to other parts of Europe — they will be able to sell the Johnson’s judgment call to voters. A third former Cabinet minister also mentioned his call on not locking down over Omicron and that the leadership contenders are not in the right place at the moment. Labour leader Keir Starmer getting a going over on the BBC over his own beer-drinking work event has provided some much needed cheer. (The Mail has a double page spread on “Beer Starmer — Dan Martin reckons he may have broken COVID rules on campaign meetings before elections, and former Labour MP Tom Harris says he should apologize.)
Inbox from hell: Other Lobby journalists well sourced on the Conservative side echo Annabelle’s Westminster coffee focus group. The Sun’s Harry Cole reckons MPs were “less flappy” yesterday, although “the place is still a tinderbox.” The FT’s Seb Payne and Laura Hughes say the mood was “muted,” though MPs complained their inboxes are a “bucket of cr*p,” with criticism especially strong in traditionally Tory supporting areas in the south. The i’s Paul Waugh quotes one MP saying that of the 500 emails they’d received by Saturday night, just 20 backed Johnson. That said, Waugh hears some Tories think Johnson should call a confidence vote in himself to demonstrate he has the support of his party.
Not the best look: The Mirror’s Aletha Adu reports that a dozen Home Office staff enjoyed Prosecco and crisps in the office to celebrate a new immigration policy during lockdown last year. Playbook can only assume “we were celebrating a new immigration policy” is the best way the officials felt they could avoid a hammering from Home Secretary Priti Patel.
Hauled over the Cauls: There were no further public calls for Johnson to quit from Tory MPs yesterday, and in a Downing Street that is very much just looking to survive each day as it comes at the moment, that was something of a win. The Times’ George Grylls and Chris Smyth note that two ministers did speak out: George Freeman, who later recanted his criticism, and Maria Caulfield, who admitted “the spirit of the rules” were broken.
What do Tory members think? Conservative MPs will have been watching Channel 4 News with interest last night (and it’s not often you can say that). They had an Opinium poll finding that 63 percent of Tory members want Johnson to stay on.
And what about the public? There were two more brutal polls out yesterday: Redfield and Wilton had Labour on a 13-point lead, and Deltapoll gave the opposition a 9-point advantage. Possibly the most damaging moment of the day in the eyes of Tory MPs who care only about keeping their seats came from polling supremo John Curtice, who told Times Radio that MPs “do have to ask themselves whether or not the prime minister is likely to recover from a situation where around a half of the people who voted for him think he should go.”
Sunak vs. Truss vs. Mordaunt: As ever, it is worth watching the Cabinet and potential Tory leadership challengers closely to gauge what happens next. Chancellor Rishi Sunak was still in submarine mode on Monday, which will only further send the Westminster rumor mill into overdrive. Politics Home’s Noa Hoffman and Adam Payne say Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’ “Fizz for Liz” schmooze operation is in full swing, and Payne reckons Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a potential contender.
Sue Gray update: No change … she still hopes to be able to publish her report at the end of this week, though it may slip into next.
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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with DHSC questions, followed by any statements or UQs … DUP MP Ian Paisley has a ten minute rule bill on access to digital devices for next of kin … The main business will be the second reading of the Animal Welfare (Sentience) Bill, which would legally recognize that animals are sentient beings capable of pain and other feelings … and then former Cabinet Minister Gavin Williamson has an adjournment debate on government recognition of Somaliland.
LEAVING THE PARTY: Away from Westminster’s favorite story, there is a lot of important news today on both the international and domestic fronts: from significant British action ahead of Russia’s potential war in Ukraine, to action on the courts backlog, a major mooted reform of the NHS, trouble over “red meat” policies on the BBC licence fee and small boats, and new reports on how ministers might tackle the looming energy crisis.
UKRAINE ON THE BRINK: Defense Secretary Ben Wallace last night announced that the U.K. was sending weapons and a small team of troops to Ukraine, as fears mount that a Russian invasion is imminent. Britain will be supplying Ukraine with hi-tech short-range anti-tank missiles for defense purposes, and the troops will train the Ukrainian army how to use them. The Mail’s Mark Nicol splashes on the story. It is worth reading Wallace’s article on the situation in the country here, as it increasingly looks like events are about to take a very grave turn.
Global Britain latest: Wallace’s strong action on Ukraine is winning him fans in the country. Kyiv Independent journalist Illia Ponomarenko tweets: “The British are just unstoppable these days. Once again, the UK finds itself on the right side of history — because it is wise enough not to be lured into going the easiest way, which is always the fastest lane straight to hell.” (H/t Ben Judah.) “Two British C-17 transport aircraft carrying weapons to Ukraine were forced to fly around German airspace after Germany refused to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine,” U.K. Defence Journal’s George Allison reported.
Mags vs. lags: Back on the home front, the red meat thrown to Tory backbenchers on Monday received mixed reviews, so a load more has been chucked onto the barbecue by No. 10 spinners today. The Telegraph’s Charles Hymas splashes on Justice Secretary Dominic Raab giving magistrates the power to jail criminals for up to a year to clear court backlogs. Raab has an article in the paper explaining that the maximum magistrates’ jail term will be doubled from six months.
What about the NHS backlog? Hospitals based on academy schools will be set up and given more freedom by Health Secretary Sajid Javid to tackle waiting lists, the Times‘ Chris Smyth reports. “Modelling reforms on the Blairite academies programme could lead to failing hospitals being forcibly turned into reform trusts, as happens with schools that are rated inadequate. It is possible that chains of hospitals will be run by leading NHS managers, or even outside sponsors, although this is yet to be decided,” Smyth writes.
Red meat issue 1: Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries announced a two-year freeze to the BBC licence fee yesterday, but pulled back from repeating a threat she made on Sunday that seemed to suggest she might be planning to abolish it all together. The Times’ Steve Swinford and Jake Kanter have the story.
Red meat issue 2: The government’s small boats policy has descended into a predictable mess as the Sun’s Harry Cole and Jerome Starkey reveal that No. 10 has encountered fierce internal resistance after exploring using painful sonic weapons to deter crossings. The Home Office is opposing the idea, with a source there telling the Sun it was “f***ing bonkers.”
MORE COVID GOOD NEWS: WHO COVID envoy David Nabarro — generally one of the more cautious voices throughout the pandemic — has said there is “light at the end of the tunnel” for the U.K. on the coronavirus, though he warned more variations and mutations could come further down that same tunnel. He reckons Britain will be one of the first countries to reach the end of the pandemic. The i’s Paul Gallagher has a write-up.
YESTERDAY’S UK COVID STATS: 84,429 positive cases. In the last week there have been 700,366 positive cases, ⬇️ 501,197 on the previous week … 85 deaths within 28 days of a positive test. In the last week 1,845 deaths have been reported, ⬆️ 515 on the previous week. As of the latest data 19,345 COVID patients are in hospital.
ENERGY PRICE PLAN? Downing Street is considering a “temporary price stabilisation mechanism” that would see the government make payments to energy companies when there is a spike in wholesale gas prices, the FT’s George Parker, Nathalie Thomas and Jim Pickard report in a top scoop on their front page. Energy firms are unsurprisingly in favor of the move, while Chancellor Rishi Sunak is worried it will end up costing the taxpayer a bomb, the paper reports.
Turn the thermostat up to 30C and put your shorts on: Johnson and Sunak will not be expected to pay any more for their energy bills in their own Downing Street apartments thanks to a cap on contributions in their grace and favor homes, the Times’ Oli Wright reports.
OPERATION PITTING: The British soldiers who led the Afghanistan evacuation mission will be awarded medals, following a campaign led by the Telegraph’s Dani Sheridan. The Sun’s Jerome Starkey and Harry Cole hear similar.
NOT JUST A BRITAIN PROBLEM: Governments and the media are fueling a cycle of distrust across the world, according to consultancy Edelman’s annual Trust Barometer which launches today. Among the striking findings from the annual mass global survey are stats showing nearly one out of every two respondents view government (48 percent) and media (46 percent) as divisive forces in society, and that people in democracies are generally fearful about the next few years. Plenty more where that came from to look through here. Edelman CEO Richard Edelman tells POLITICO’s Ryan Heath in a podcast out tomorrow that people’s fears about the future are partially coming from the pandemic: “The base emotion is ‘I’m scared I’m going to be downwardly economically mobile,’ and that is a different kind of world than the entire sort of postwar consensus.”
LONDON IN 8 YEARS: London Mayor Sadiq Khan aims to cut car traffic in the capital by more than a quarter by the end of the decade, as part of plans contained in a City Hall report on how London can reach net zero by 2030. Deep in the report are some new approaches Khan has announced are being considered to help meet net zero, which include further extending ULEZ, a new daily “clean air charge” and a Greater London boundary charge to levy non-London vehicles entering the city. The Standard’s Ross Lydall has more.
COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: YouTube, TikTok, Twitter and Meta officials will be questioned by the DCMS committee and online harms and disinformation subcommittee on influencer culture and the Online Safety Bill (10 a.m.) … Prisons Minister Victoria Atkins and Skills Minister Alex Burghart will be quizzed on the quality of education in prisons by the education committee (10 a.m.) … Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng is up at the Scottish affairs committee for a session on the damage left by Storm Arwen (10.30 a.m.) … and the foreign affairs committee will hold a one-off session on the rising tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with experts, a Bosnian politician and Tory peer Arminka Helic (2.30 p.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on the next meeting of the EU-U.K. Partnership Council, professional use of peat and the equality of treatment between different groups in enforcement of lockdown regulations by police … The main business will be committee stage consideration of the Health and Care Bill.
Yesterday in the Commons: Controversial government plans to bring in voter ID at polling stations passed at the final hurdle. The Mirror’s Dan Bloom points out that 85 of the 99 Tory MPs who were involved in the government’s biggest rebellion over COVID passes voted for the bill, despite any previous reservations they may have had about becoming a “papers please” society. Two Tory MPs rebelled in the form of William Wragg and David Davis — the latter had an ill-fated piece for OpenDemocracy yesterday calling on his colleagues to help kill the voter ID measures in the bill. The government insists the measures are necessary to tackle voter fraud.
Last night in the Lords: The government suffered 14 defeats on the Policing Bill in a late-night sitting of the Lords, which saw peers vote to make misogyny a hate crime in England and Wales against the wishes of the government. Other defeats for the government came on their plans to introduce new curbs on protests, which could be damaging as the late entry of the amendments on protest mean they cannot be reinstated into the bill when it returns to the Commons. The Guardian’s Jedidajah Otte has a write-up.
TODAY IN HOLYROOD: Nicola Sturgeon will deliver a COVID update to the Scottish parliament this afternoon as pressure grows on the first minister to ease remaining coronavirus curbs. Though football and other sporting fans returned to stadiums yesterday, indoor events continue to be limited and nightclubs currently remain closed in Scotland. The opposition Scottish Conservatives have called for all restrictions except mask-wearing to be dropped from the end of January, while hospitality groups are pointing to new Scottish government research that suggests as the numbers visiting bars and restaurants fell, house mixing has risen. Sturgeon will meet with her Cabinet this morning to OK any changes ahead of her statement at 2 p.m. in Holyrood — here’s the BBC’s preview.
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MEDIA ROUND
Deputy PM Dominic Raab broadcast round: Times Radio (7 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … ITV GMB (8.25 a.m.) .. talkRADIO (8.50 a.m.).
Also on the Today program: Dave Penman, general secretary of the FDA union (7.09 a.m.) … David Anderson, former independent reviewer of terrorism legislation and crossbench peer (7.30 a.m.) … Director-General of the BBC Tim Davie (7.50 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain (ITV): Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jon Ashworth (7.50 a.m.).
Also on Sky News breakfast: Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jon Ashworth (8.05 a.m.) … London Mayor Sadiq Khan (9.05 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Tory Councillor Claire Pearsall (7.10 a.m.) … The Mirror’s Rachel Wearmouth (7.25 a.m.) … IATA Director General Willie Walsh (7.40 a.m.) … Former Editor of the Scotsman Tim Luckhurst (8.05 a.m.).
GB News breakfast: Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jon Ashworth (7.20 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio breakfast: Chief Inspector of Probation Justin Russell (7.35 a.m.) … SAGE member Andrew Hayward (8.06 a.m.) … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jon Ashworth (8.36 a.m.) … Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov, a former Kremlin adviser (8.45 a.m.).
Also on Julia Hartley-Brewer breakfast show (talkRADIO): Tory MP Richard Fuller (8.05 a.m.) … Work and pensions committee Chairman Stephen Timms (8.20 a.m.).
Good Morning Scotland: Scottish government COVID adviser Linda Bauld (8.05 a.m.) … Former head of BBC News Roger Mosey (8.15 a.m.).
The Briefing with Gloria de Piero (GB News): Tory MP Bob Seely (12.05 p.m.) … Shadow Rail Minister Tan Dhesi (12.15 p.m.) … Tory MP Siobhan Baillie (12.35 p.m.) … Lib Dem MP Jamie Stone (12.45 p.m.) … Labour MP Kevin Brennan (12.45 p.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Tory MP Miriam Cates … SNP MP Hannah Bardell … The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot … The Mail’s John Stevens.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): SNP MP Pete Wishart … Former Brexit Party MEP Ann Widdecombe … Politics professor Tim Bale … Comedian Dane Baptiste.
Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Observer’s Sonia Sodha and ConservativeHome boss Mark Wallace.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)
Daily Express: PM, the clock is ticking … sort energy bills crisis.
Daily Mail: British troops sent to Ukraine.
Daily Mirror: PM gave go-ahead for party.
Daily Star: Blessed be thy name.
Financial Times: Ministers explore paying energy suppliers to ease household bills.
HuffPost UK: PM ‘lied to parliament about parties.’
i: Tory angst at Johnson leadership growing.
Metro: ‘I’ll swear PM lied to the house.’
POLITICO UK: Roberta Metsola cements rise to European Parliament presidency.
PoliticsHome: Liz Truss leadership “schmooze operation” is in full swing as Boris Johnson’s popularity plummets.
The Daily Telegraph: Tougher powers for magistrates to clear trial backlog.
The Guardian: Cummings accuses PM of lying over No 10 party.
The Independent: Navy policing of Channel boats ‘will aid traffickers.’
The Sun: Andrew’s 6-in-a-bed.
The Times: Cummings — PM lied to parliament about party.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ☁️☁️☁️ Cloudy and windy, with mist in the morning. Highs of 8C.
MEDIA MOVE: Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson will present a new Friday afternoon program on Times Radio. Playbook is told Davidson sees it as a way to combine her two great loves: politics and live broadcasting (she worked as a journalist for BBC Scotland before turning to politics). She’ll be on after Matt Chorley and present between 1 p.m. and 4 p.m., covering culture, entertainment and sport as well as breaking news.
HIRING: Occasional MP Geoffrey Cox is looking for a “highly motivated” caseworker who can “manage a large case load.” No doubt. On the plus, the successful candidate will get to “accompany the MP on constituency visits and meetings.” You never know, you might get a free trip to the Caribbean out of it.
NEW GIGS: Conservative Campaign Headquarters have made two new hires in preparation for the next general election. Tony Lee will become the director of campaigning — he’s a veteran party staffer who most recently worked with West Midlands Mayor Andy Street. Richard Murphy, a former head of CCHQ field campaigning, will start a role advising Tory MPs in Lib Dem-facing marginals.
NEW GIG: Jenny Symmons, who is the GMB rep for MPs’ staff, is moving on from Labour MP Janet Daby’s office after landing a gig as senior researcher to Sarah Owen, the shadow minister for homelessness and faith.
BIRTHDAYS: Irish Tánaiste Leo Varadkar … Brecon and Radnorshire MP Fay Jones … Former Tory and Change U.K. MP Heidi Allen … Former FT Editor Lionel Barber … Tory peer David Howell … Retired Tory peer Terence Higgins … Former Principle Private Secretary to Margaret Thatcher Clive Whitmore … Welsh government Mental Health Minister Lynne Neagle … Former GQ U.K. Editor Dylan Jones.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald producer Grace Stranger.
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Alex Wickham
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/disobedient-servant-the-reynolds-pamphlet-hurricane/
