By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor
It’s not surprising the British and Americans have had another go at striking the Houthis in Yemen. But it’s just not necessarily all that clever.
Allied naval vessels have been threatened, the argument goes in London and Washington, the commercial shipping of other countries hit or hijacked.
It is essential something is done about it, say the politicians and military planners.
But how far have they thought it through? The operations risk a lot, will almost certainly not achieve its goals and are already strengthening the enemy. The Houthis and their Iranian patrons laid a trap and Britain and America have arguably walked, or flown, right into it.
The allied aim is to neutralise the threat posed by the Houthi rebel forces against international shipping in the Red Sea, through which a huge amount of oil and goods pass.
Once a rag-tag rebel army, they’re now a fighting force to be reckoned with, dominating much of Yemen and armed and trained by Iran. They have been attacking ships since the start of Israel’s Gaza offensive in solidarity with their Arab brothers they say.
The Houthis are hitting the West where it hurts but to be successful the British-American airstrikes must entirely neutralise their threat to the Red Sea. While any threat persists international shipping must avoid the Red Sea because of the punitive cost of insurance which has in some cases risen 20-fold.
That degree of success is unfeasible. Ask the Saudis who failed to deter the Houthis despite eight years of military action supported by Gulf allies, the UK and the US.
But more to the point, the capability the Houthis are using to threaten shipping is mobile and easily hidden in the desert wastes of Yemen.
The airstrikes will certainly degrade the Houthis. But they only need to continue threatening shipping. For that, the Houthis need to hang onto a handful of portable assets and render the Red Sea unviable as a conduit for international shipping.
And despite everything British and America jets threw at them two weeks ago they’ve managed to keep up the threat, letting loose missiles at shipping regardless.
The airstrikes may be blowing up bunkers and weapons stockpiles or rearranging sand in the desert but in the battle for hearts and minds across the Middle East they are handing a victory to Iran and its allies. And they are almost certainly not going to make the Red Sea a viable international trade route again, not until Israel ends its offensive in Gaza.
https://news.sky.com/story/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-100-days-of-israel-hamas-war-cameron-says-strike-on-yemen-sends-unambiguous-message-12978800
