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FRIDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Keir Starmer delivered a gleeful speech in Scotland after Labour won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
— Labour is promising a “rich” string of policies at its upcoming Liverpool conference.
— The knives are out for SNP leader Humza Yousaf following the Rutherglen result.
— Boris Johnson just took another swipe at Rishi Sunak — this time on smoking.
— Tory HQ issued a bunch of questions for Labour ahead of conference — as the PM faced an LBC grilling.
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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
YES HE CAINE: Keir Starmer heads into Labour’s annual conference gurgling with glee after thanking Scottish activists who “blew the doors off” in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
Taking the Mike: Starmer made the comment — reminiscent of Michael Caine in the Italian Job — at a by-election victory bash in the Rutherglen seat this morning, after Labour beat the SNP to a pulp in the vote via a 20.4 percent swing.
Finished first and famished: “When I left here a week ago with the team, I said you’ve got to win it,” Starmer told excited activists. “You blew the doors off!” He added: “We are the party of change … We’re hungry for power and ready to serve across Scotland and the United Kingdom.”
Ravenous for cash too: An email from Starmer went out to the Labour mailing list asking for donations off the back of the Rutherglen news and ahead of the two upcoming by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth. “This result is seismic,” Starmer said in the email. “Now, it is imperative that we keep facing forwards.”
March to Liverpool: Starmer said his case for change would be on show at the conference in Liverpool this weekend, while campaign coordinator Pat McFadden promised on GB News the jamboree would be “policy rich.”
Now read this: The result in Rutherglen has Scottish Labour dreaming not just of clawing back more seats from the SNP in the next election but finishing ahead of them, POLITICO’s Andrew McDonald writes in this top analysis of the result. “The scale of the victory increases our confidence that Labour are on course not just for winning 15 or 20 seats, but potentially winning more than that and potentially overtaking the SNP,” the pollster Mark McGeoghegan told Andrew.
Knock-on effects: Some in Labour note both the Tories and SNP will need to be even more cautious with their election spend after losing their deposits in the by-election, while Labour could be more bullish.
SNP woes: Debate will continue to rage about how much a by-election result in (to be fair) quite unique circumstances is a sign of Labour’s incoming dominance of Scotland or not — but what can’t really be in doubt is how dreadful a result it was for the SNP.
Contrition time: SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn admitted this morning it would be unwise to “try and downplay the scale of the challenge that faces us as a result of this.” Andrew points out the result made its way onto the “biggest by-election swings of all time” mega list on Wikipedia. Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf said in a statement this afternoon: “We will reflect, we’ll reorganize, we’ll regroup as a political party.” He made a few excuses in an email to activists, which Andrew has seen and shared here.
Might not be enough: Despite the promises to regroup, there are independence voices gunning for Yousaf this afternoon. The Times’ Kieran Andrews has a “senior SNP source” warning of “annihilation” if Yousaf stays on as leader, while arch-rebel MSP and failed leadership candidate Ash Regan sent out a 500-word press release arguing the result is a “call for change” within the party. Former First Minister (and now Alba leader) Alex Salmond told Times Radio Yousaf has “days in which to save his first ministership” after the “humiliating” defeat.
But Yousaf will be more worried … about this tweet from the respected SNP MP Stewart McDonald, effectively arguing his independence-focused election strategy is flawed. Lots of MPs whose seats are at risk feel the same, and want to focus on the cost of living crisis rather than pushing for a referendum few Scots seem all-that-keen on at the minute.
Pollster view: McGeoghegan told Andrew the SNP under Yousaf needs a reset and a new strategy that “doesn’t necessarily include independence” in order to win back the swathes of SNP voters who stayed at home in Rutherglen. He argued the movement needs a “more convincing narrative” about how the Scottish government wants to build a more prosperous Scotland.
Which might be difficult … Given Tony Blair Institute polling this morning shows significant levels of dissatisfaction with the Scottish government, even among SNP voters, and majority support for independence.
Even despite the Rutherglen loss … The nationalists show ever-increasing signs of cracking up. Holyrood magazine hears outgoing MP Mhairi Black threatened to quit outright unless her staff member was lined up to replace her as candidate in her Paisley and Renfrewshire South seat.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
NO SMOKE WITHOUT A FIRE: Boris Johnson uses his latest Mail column to attack Rishi Sunak for the second week in a row — this time blasting the PM for announcing an eventual ban on smoking.
Now he cares about crime: Johnson said the proposal for an ever-rising legal purchasing age for ciggies was an example of “the endless inflation in the size and role of the state.” He argued police would be diverted from attending burglaries and the like, adding that the government was “proposing to criminalize yet another variety of ordinary behavior, with no thought to the consequences for those who have to make it work.”
Oh, and: Johnson (who as PM ditched a proposed sugar tax) argued the same public health motivation for the smoking ban could lead to a ban on sugar and alcohol — although Sunak has argued there’s no safe method of smoking, whereas unhealthy food and drinks can be consumed in moderation.
He got in there with the response first: Speaking to LBC this afternoon, Sunak said he was “pleased there’s a lot of support” for the smoking ban. “There will be criticism, and that’s OK,” he said. “But I think fundamentally, a prime minister like me really should be doing these types of policies, these types of big decisions that can really change things for the better over time.”
GETTING AHEAD OF LIVERPOOL: Elsewhere in his LBC interview, Sunak pushed his line about being the change candidate at the next election. “When I go around the country talking to people, it’s not necessarily about this party or that party, it’s a sense that politics for a long time has just not focused on making the right long-term decisions for the country,” he said. “And in many cases, just taking the easy way out; chasing the short-term headlines. And I want to do things differently.”
After struggling to keep control of their own narrative at conference, the Tories want to disrupt Labour’s: CCHQ issued a bunch of questions to journalists asking what the Labour position on HS2 is; whether Labour will support Sunak’s new “Network North” proposals; how Labour intends to meet its fiscal rules (despite Sunak announcing an unfunded £600 million further education plan this week); what Labour would renegotiate as part of an updated Brexit deal; and Playbook PM’s personal favorite, for its politicization-on-steroids tone: “When it comes to building the homes Britain needs, Labour are the blockers not the builders aren’t they?”
Bear in mind: Both parties have been woeful on housebuilding during their latest stints in government.
And a final question from Playbook PM: What happened to … all the things Labour said before September 2022? The press releases on their new website, including all the speeches and policies announced, now start from that date. This Conservative candidate smells a rat.
SUELLA AFTERSHOCKS: Sunak continues to be dogged by questions about Suella Braverman claiming a “hurricane” of illegal migration is en route to Britain (as opposed to what must be a mere gale of record legal immigration numbers.)
No, no: Asked whether Braverman was right that multiculturalism has failed in Britain, Sunak told GMB: “No, no, I think it’s something we should be so proud of as Brits, it’s something that we do better than anyone else. But I think we also agree a couple of other things — when people do come here they should integrate, they should sign up to British values so we have that shared understanding amongst us.”
CASH IN THE BANK: The FT’s Jim Pickard digs into the increased £40bn tax take for the government as a result of frozen rates. Could the IFS have been right all along about Britain becoming a perma-high-tax state … in spite of the tax-cutting fantasies from Conservative MPs and dubious promises from ministers?
WHAT DO TO WITH ALL THAT CASH: Ministers are considering plowing hundreds of millions of pounds into electric car subsidies as part of a response to Joe Biden’s huge investment in the U.S. according to Kitty Donaldson and Ellen Milligan for Bloomberg.
ON THE BUSES: Liverpool will become the city region to take its buses back into public ownership, mayor Steve Rotheram announced earlier.
SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR: The Independent will be publishing some polling from Deltapoll this weekend which suggests — despite received wisdom — that talking about Europe doesn’t damage Labour prospects in the so-called red wall. The poll for the Labour Movement for Europe, done just in red wall seats Labour lost to the Tories in 2019, suggests those who switched parties believe Brexit has made things worse.
Bear in mind … it’s interesting timing, given Europe could be one of the fights at Labour conference this weekend (more on all that below.) Read the full data when it lands on the Independent site.
SOCIAL AFFAIRS
QUITE SWEET: New Labour MP Michael Shanks is a teacher, but his pupils didn’t seem to know he was running to be an MP — or what subject he’s teaching them — according to this TikTok (via Laura McConnell).
GETTING LOTS OF LOVE ON TWITTER: These batshit ramblings from the new Eton college provost (chair of the governors, in modern English) Nicholas Coleridge. “If I were being completely candid, I do accept that I prefer the company of Etonians to the company of people from any other school in the world,” he argues.
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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) is leading on the alleged plot to kidnap TV presenter Holly Willoughby … BBC News at Six is doing the same … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) is leading on the Labour win in Scotland.
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Iranian activist Masih Alinejad, who was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former SNP Deputy Leader Jim Sillars … U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani … former ambassador to Washington Kim Darroch.
Drive with Cathy Newman (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Conservative peer William Hague … Labour peer Helena Kennedy … Conservative London Assembly member Andrew Boff.
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): The Institute for Government’s Catherine Haddon … journalist Allan Little.
Any Questions (Radio 4, 8 p.m.): The panel debating from the University of Surrey in Guildford is Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris … Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry … Scottish writer Gerry Hassan … former government adviser Salma Shah.
Friday Night with Nadine (TalkTV, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Rosie Duffield … former Transport Minister Norman Baker.
ON TOMORROW’S PAPERS TODAY DUTY TONIGHT: Jack Surfleet.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Guardian Columnist Zoe Williams and PR consultant Alex Deane … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.) Former Conservative MP Julie Kirkbride and HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield.
YOUR WEEKEND IN POLITICS
MEDIA BLITZ: Expect Keir Starmer interviews in the Sunday Mirror and Observer, as well as on the Laura Kuenssberg show.
CONFERENCE MAIN HALL SUNDAY: Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner kicks things off with a speech at 11.20 a.m. … before some crucial debates and votes.
Fighting over talk: Through the afternoon, Labour members will be voting on the 12 topics to be discussed over the course of the conference. Six union choices are a dead cert to get through via the union block vote: industrial strategy, education and skills, the social care workforce, the struggles of the high street, the new deal for workers, and tech and AI in the workplace. The other six are up for grabs, with the Labour leadership-backing Labour To Win and the left Momentum group battling it out.
That battle: Labour To Win wants the conference to discuss the NHS, Ukraine, energy, violence against women and girls, defense, and ethics and integrity in politics. Momentum is pushing for debates on housing, scrapping the two-child benefits limit, health funding and structures, free school meals, asylum and immigration, and education standards and funding.
More contentious stuff: The results will be announced at 3 p.m., after which a series of votes on Labour rule changes will take pace (details here), which will be done in bundles. Following all that are six votes on the recent national policy forum papers, which will feed into the next election manifesto if passed. Expect all this stuff to sail through, as the leadership will have a majority among conference delegates — but the results of the votes on debate topics are less predictable.
PITCHED BATTLE: Labour MPs and political journos go head to head for their traditional football game from 10 a.m.
BEST OF THE SUNDAY FRINGE: Shadow Environment Secretary Steve Reed talks public services from 10.45 a.m. in meeting room 19 of the conference center … Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting talks “innovation” in the NHS from 12 p.m. in meeting room 19 of the conference center … Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones talks sustainable growth from 12.30 p.m. in Auditorium 1B of the conference center … there’s a Labour First “rally” from 12.30 p.m. at 30 James Street Hotel … Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper appears at a 12.30 p.m. event about crime in meeting room 14 of the conference center … Shadow Transport Secretary Lou Haigh appears at a transport event with union leaders including RMT boss Mick Lynch from 12.45 p.m. in Grace Suite 1 of the Hilton Hotel … Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry is doing a live recording of the PoliticsHome podcast from 1 p.m. in meeting room 4A of the conference center … Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy appears at an event about learning from “progressives” abroad from 1 p.m. in the IPPR Fringe Zone, Education Area 3 at the Museum of Liverpool …
It keeps going: Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and fellow left-wingers appear at a Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament event in meeting room 11C of the conference center from 1 p.m. … Local council mega-meme Jackie Weaver appears at a 1 p.m. event about rual communities in meeting room 13 of the conference center … Shadow Northen Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn appears at a 1.30 p.m. event about Europe in Grace Suite 3 of the Hilton Hotel … Onward is doing a Q&A with Shadow Environment Secretary Steve Reed from 2 p.m. in meeting room 20 of the conference center … Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones apprears at another event about sustainable growth at the Labour Environment Hub Marquee from 2 p.m. … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall appears at an event about the Labour ‘missions’ from 3 p.m. in meeting room 24 of the conference center … Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and Labour grandee Peter Mandelson appear at a event about instustrial sectors from 3 p.m. in meeting room 19 of the conference center …
There’s even more: Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy talks foreign policy at 3.30 p.m. in auditorium 1B of the conference center … Streeting speeaks at a 3.30 p.m. event about health and care in the Labour manifesto from 3.30 p.m. in Grace Suite 2 of the Hilton Hotel … Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds appears at a 4 p.m. event about Labour in Scotland in meeting room 18 of the conference center … The Spectator hosts a Q&A with Labour mayor Sadiq Khan at 4 p.m. in meeting Room 20 of the conference center — the sole Speccie event and sole Khan sit-down of the conference … Shadow Energy Secretary Ed Miliband appears at a 5 p.m. event on climate and nature at the IPPR Fringe Zone in Education Area 3 of the Museum of Liverpool … Polling guru John Curtice appears at a Demos event about the next election from 5 p.m. in Albert 3 of the Hilton Hotel … Shadow International Development Secretary Lisa Nandy and Labour peer Alf Dubs discuss refugees from 5 p.m. in Auditorium 1C of the conference center.
Please, make it stop: Shadow Cabinet Office Minister Jon Ashworth speaks to journalist Camilla Tominey about social justice from 5.30 p.m. in meeting Room 17 of the conference center … Guardian Editor-in-Chief Kath Viner is doing an in conversation event at 5.30 p.m. in Auditorium 1A of the conference center … Former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell is among socialist campaign group MPs at a 5.30 p.m. event in meeting room 18 of the conference center … Shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry appear at a 6 p.m. event about justice, in meeting rooms 3, 4 and 5 of the Leonardo Hotel … Former Shadow Equalities Secretary Dawn Butler is doing a Q&A with campaigner and columnist Owen Jones from 6 p.m. at the Camp and Furnace … Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is doing an in conversation event from 6 p.m. in meeting room 19 of the conference center … and Shadow Environment Secretary Ed Miliband speaks at a climate event in the Labour Environment Hub Marquee from 6.45 p.m.
LET THE PROPER BOOZING BEGIN: EU ambo Pedro Serrano is hosting a drinks reception from 6 p.m. at the Exchange Restaurant of the Hilton Hotel … There’s a Labour to Win reception from 6 p.m. at the Baltic Hotel … SME4Labour hosts drinks at 6 p.m. in meeting room 22 of the conference center … metro mayors appear at a 6 p.m. reception in the Arden Lounge of the ECL … Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram is hosting a welcome reception from 6.30 p.m. at the Tate Liverpool … Labour Together hosts a reception celebrating women at 7 p.m. in meeting room 19 of the conference center …
Booze firms keep cashing in: London Mayor Sadiq Khan appears at a buiness reception from 7 p.m. at the Hilton Hotel … Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar hosts Scots Night from 7 p.m. in Hall 2C of the conference center … there’s an IPPR reception from 7.30 p.m. in the IPPR Fringe Zone in Education Area 3 … it’s Welsh Night in Hall 2F of the conference center from 7.30 p.m. … Lexington is hosting a reception from 9.15 p.m. in Room 4 of Leonardo’s Hotel … and Dawn Butler’s Jamaica Party at the Camp and Furnace kicks off at 10 p.m.
Not in the main guide: There are also receptions with the New Statesman, Spectator, the Food and Drink Federation, Progressive Britain and Woburn Partners.
ALSO HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND: Reform UK holds its annual conference at the Hilton Metropole in West London.
WHAT THE PM IS UP TO: Working from Chequers.
**Jack and Sam welcome you into their homes as they discuss what’s coming up in Westminster politics. Join the conversation – they’ll keep you in the loop, and in great company. Subscribe to be notified of new episodes**
WEEKEND MEDIA ROUND
Ayesha Hazarika with Times Radio drive (Times Radio, 4 p.m. on Saturday): Polling guru John Curtice … Sky News presenter Jon Craig … The Spectator’s Isabel Hardman … Conservative former SpAd Anita Boateng … Labour ex-Cabinet minister Clare Short … Labour MP Ben Bradshaw.
Trevor Phillips on Sunday (Sky News, 8.30 a.m. on Sunday): Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Transport Secretary Mark Harper … Unite boss Sharon Graham … Labour grandee Peter Mandelson … POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy … Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith … Former Labour aide Ayesha Hazarika.
Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg (BBC One, 9 a.m. on Sunday): Labour leader Keir Starmer.
The Camilla Tominey Show (GB News, 9.30 a.m. on Sunday): Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Transport Secretary Mark Harper … Labour MP George Howarth … Conservative MP Damian Moore … former Labour aide John McTernan … GB News’s Chris Hope … the Mail on Sunday’s Anna Mikhailova.
Sunday Morning with Kate McCann and Adam Boulton (Times Radio, 10 a.m. on Sunday): Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Transport Secretary Mark Harper … Unison General Secretary Christina McAnea … More in Common’s Luke Tryl … HALO Trust CEO James Cowan … Birmingham City Council leader John Cotton.
Ayesha Hazarika with Times Radio drive (Times Radio, 4 p.m. on Sunday): Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner … Labour grandee Peter Mandelson … TUC boss Paul Nowak … Labour West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin … former Labour MP Luciana Berger … Public accounts committee chair Meg Hillier … Labour MP Angela Eagle.
Westminster Hour (Radio 4, 10 p.m. on Sunday): Labour Party Chair Anneliese Dodds … Conservative MP Chris Loder MP … Mirror Pol Ed John Stevens … Liverpool Uni Professor Jon Tonge.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
WRITING SUNDAY CRUNCH: Annabelle Dickson.
WRITING MORNING PLAYBOOK FOR MONDAY: Eleni Courea.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On October 6, 2020 Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the Conservative conference the COVID-19 pandemic must be a turning point for Britain after which it would never return to normal.
HAVE GREAT WEEKENDS: Politicos remember to look after their health, in particular during the frenetic conference season. My wife is making me go to Gang of Four tonight, then I’m staring into the void before heading to Liverpool for the Labour jamboree.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, Playbook reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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