West Ham possess the attacking firepower and physicality to burst Liverpool’s bubble at Anfield on Wednesday as our tipster Jones Knows attacks the midweek card.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Tuesday 7.30pm
Roberto De Zerbi has done the smart thing at Brighton and kept most aspects of the football on show very similar to Graham Potter. None more so than their wasteful nature in front of goal.
After scoring three at Anfield, they’ve had 38 shots in their last two games, creating an expected goals total of 2.68 without scoring. It’s very Brighton, but those positive attacking chance creation metrics identify just what a cohesive unit De Zerbi has to work with. Everyone knows their roles.
The same can’t be said for Nottingham Forest, who have seemingly abandoned their early season attacking approach for a block defence that is aimed to nick them a point or two. A non-penalty expected goal return of 1.02 in their last two matches suggests Steve Cooper’s side aren’t entirely comfortable in their own skin just yet. Brighton are likely to dominate and should, key word there, should, score a couple of goals.
Solly March’s shot prices may have been snipped by Sky Bet so that angle has gone but his goalscorer price remains absolutely soaked in value at 7/1. I may have said that before.
However, against one of the most welcoming defences in the Premier League a player with attacking metrics of 2.17 in non-penalty expected goals – the 26th highest of any player in the league this season – should be backed to score when the anytime price is bulky enough. It’s now 55 shots since he last scored and no player has had more shots (20) or more shots on target (9) without scoring in the Premier League so far this season.
Please, Solly, just score. We can all then get on with our lives.
Last weekend’s winners…
- ‘No’ BTTS in Brentford vs Brighton & Chelsea to win to nil double (13/2)
- Solanke to score vs Fulham (11/4)
- Tottenham to win 2-0 (8/1)
- Man City not to win vs Liverpool (4/5)
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Solly March to score (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Crystal Palace vs Wolves, Tuesday 8.15pm
In games of such tight nature, set pieces will undoubtedly play a big part and Palace’s inability to defend their box from such situations remains a weakness. They may have only conceded two goals from set pieces this season but their expected goals data suggests they have should concede almost five – that is the worst record (4.79) of any team in the Premier League this season. It’s been a common trend since Patrick Viera took charge with only Leicester, Everton and Southampton shipping a higher expected goals against figure from set pieces than Palace (19.3).
Timothy Castagne should have scored from his header from eight yards out at the weekend and continued the trend of defenders having very presentable chances to score against Palace. Thiago Silva, Sven Botman, Fabian Schar, Ben Mee, Zanka, John Stones, Ezri Konsa, Nat Phillips and Virgil van Dijk all have had at least one shot from a set piece situation against Palace this season.
Therefore, the prices about Max Kilman for Wolves stand out as particularly bulky. He may have only scored once for Wolves but he goes up for every set piece and struck the post with an effort in the win over Nottingham Forest. He is 11/8 with Sky Bet to have at least one shot at goal and is 50/1 to score the first goal. Both are worth backing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Max Kilman to have one or more shots (11/8 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & Max Kilman to score first (50/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Bournemouth vs Southampton, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is a tough one from a match market perspective. All three outcomes look possible and are priced up accordingly. Bournemouth look a confident outfit in their current mood, moving to six games unbeaten with their draw at Fulham whilst Southampton do possess the higher level of quality within their ranks. Fence job this one.
Gary O’Neil has made some very intelligent football calls since taking the job – one of those has been to get the very dangerous Phillip Billing playing higher up the pitch in support of Dominic Solanke.
He has scored three goals in his last five games and assisted Solanke for the opening goal at Fulham in what was a very silky piece of play. The 11/10 with Sky Bet deserves plenty of respect for him to have at least one shot on target.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs West Ham, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
One swallow does not make a summer. One result shouldn’t mask longer-term problems. I’m against Liverpool here.
For my money the market has been influenced far too much by Liverpool’s result against Manchester City.
Are they now back to their best? Despite their fantastically brave and intense performance on Super Sunday, I want to see them back it up before jumping on their bandwagon. Liverpool remain vulnerable defensively, keeping just three clean sheets in their last 13 Premier League games.
West Ham’s potency on the counter-attack and physicality at set-pieces makes them a dangerous opponent. They also arrive with some impressive attacking metrics from their last three fixtures where Jarrod Bowen, Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta have looked very sharp. It’s equated to West Ham creating a total expected goals return of 5.64 and posting 60 shots at goal – no team have had more in that period.
I’m all over following the Hammers to make this a difficult evening for Jurgen Klopp’s men. My main play is a rather safety-first one by taking West Ham with a +2 goal start at 4/6 with Sky Bet, meaning as long as Liverpool don’t win by two or more goals we’ll have a winner. But both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in the match at Evens and West Ham to score two or more goals at 11/4 also are certainly worth serious consideration. For the purposes of a match prediction when assessing the prices, the away win stands out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: West Ham +2 handicap (4/6 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs Brentford, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Chelsea did me a huge favour at the weekend, winning to nil at Aston Villa, but I’m happy to swerve them here at 4/6 with Sky Bet. Sunday was the first time I’ve watched Chelsea in the Graham Potter era and I was wholly underwhelmed, especially defensively. Aston Villa created an expected goals figure of 1.79, Chelsea had Kepa Arrizabalaga in ridiculous form and some individual mistakes from Villa handed Chelsea both their goals.
They were very suspect to direct balls down both channels as Aston Villa swung in 30 crosses and caused big issues. Brentford at home do like to get the ball forward quickly too, so this will be another test defensively for the Blues, who are playing their sixth game in 19 days and may just lack for intensity in the cut and thrust of a west London derby that means a lot to Bees.
This can be seen in the two meetings last season where Brentford performed exceptionally, falling to an unlucky 1-0 defeat at home before rampaging to a 4-1 win at Stamford Bridge. The expected goals data from those two meetings also presented that Brentford had Chelsea’s number, winning that battle 3.21 vs 2.03 across the two fixtures. The 6/5 with Sky Bet for Brentford to win or draw is a price I want on my side.
Combining a pro-Brentford result with the total match shots also makes huge appeal at the prices. Since promotion to the Premier League, Brentford’s matches at home average 24.7 match shots per 90 and I’d expect that number to be above average for a game involving an elite attack like Chelsea’s plus the intense derby atmosphere.
Brentford managed 34 shots themselves in the two fixtures with Chelsea last season with the game at Stamford Bridge producing a whopping 38 match shots. I’m happy to play the 27 or more shots which looks a lovely play and I’m happy to combine that with the 6/5 on Brentford double chance with double stakes being advised.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Brentford to draw or win & 27 or more match shots (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Newcastle vs Everton, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Low-scoring games are following Everton around this season. There have been just 19 goals scored in their matches – for and against – with that 1.9 average per game meaning only Wolves’ games have featured fewer goals. It makes sense too considering the switch in style under Frank Lampard to playing with a very secure base at the back but one that doesn’t overly cause opposition defences too many problems the other way.
Newcastle approach games in a similar way under Eddie Howe with a defence-first approach but the Toon have a greater depth of attacking options to punish teams with. Only Liverpool and Manchester City have conceded fewer goals than Newcastle in 2022 and as a unit, the back four played excellently at Old Trafford in the 0-0 draw, fully deserving of their clean sheet. Another one should be on the way here in a game that screams under 2.5 goals. A Toon win with under 2.5 goals at 3/1 with Sky Bet should give you a good run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Manchester United vs Tottenham, Wednesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m not ready to trust Manchester United yet. Consistency issues remain for a club still very much in transition and the injury to Christian Eriksen really doesn’t help matters – he is doubtful to feature once again. This will be a big test for United against a Tottenham team that have a strong chin under Antonio Conte. It’s a workmanlike style of football that demands excellence in both boxes but unlike previous Spurs teams of yesteryear this team are beginning to learn how to win. Unfortunately, the markets agree regarding Spurs being the better side here and although I like them for the away win, 15/8 with Sky Bet is fair enough.
A switch of system for Spurs could tempt me to get involved with some bets though. Yves Bissouma is likely to start as part of a three-man midfield – one that finished the game with Everton – and this should see Pierre Emile-Hojbjerg and Roman Bentancur be given more licence to support the front two – as seen for Bentancur assisting Hojbjerg for the second goal on Saturday.
Bentancur is 5/6 to have one more shots whilst Hojbjerg is 2/1 for two or more. Both make appeal – but is very much team news related on whether I’ll pull the trigger.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Fulham vs Aston Villa, Thursday 7.30pm
If you’re looking to play any team in the Premier League in order to give your strikers some confidence, Fulham are it.
Aston Villa are bound to get chances in this game against a side that has shipped at least two goals in nine of their 11 games across all competitions this season, including against Crawley Town in the Carabao Cup. Dominic Solanke became the eighth centre forward to score playing Fulham this season as their weakness through the heart of their defence remains unfixed.
And Villa are a team that like to focus their attacks in central areas. Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins were played together to good effect in the unfortunate 2-0 defeat to Chelsea – a game where Villa created a healthy expected goals figure of 1.79 but bumped into a goalkeeper possessed. I think Steven Gerrard’s men can fire home multiples goals in this one with the 5/4 with Sky Bet on them to score two or more standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Leicester vs Leeds, Thursday 8.15pm
If you required any evidence to show that Leicester are rated much higher than a relegation-threatened team just look at their match prices. Despite still sitting joint-bottom of the pile with just one win to their name and missing their best player in James Maddison due to suspension for this fixture, they are still 5/4 favourites with Sky Bet to beat Leeds, who have shown in patches this season they are no mugs.
The market is expecting Leicester to pick up results and climb the table. I can certainly see it, too. They were the better team in the 0-0 with Crystal Palace, playing with plenty of creativity without turning that into good quality chances as their expected goals data was quite low with Palace defending so deep.
Leeds will afford the Leicester attackers more space here and Harvey Barnes looks overpriced to open the scoring at 15/2 with Sky Bet. He’s had 12 shots in his last four games to a healthy expected goals figure of 0.79 and looked very sharp when giving Joel Ward a torrid time cutting off the left flank against Palace. In the absence of Maddison, his goal threat is Leicester’s most potent weapon.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1