Poll puts Truss 34 points up — Hustings in Cardiff — Taiwan showdown – POLITICO

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What’s driving the day in London.

By ELENI COUREA

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Good Wednesday morning. This is Eleni Courea, bringing you Playbook for the rest of the week.

DRIVING THE DAY

GET READY FOR ROUND THREE: Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak square off in Cardiff for their third set of hustings with Tory members today. A major poll of the selectorate published last night — the first in nearly two weeks — has Truss surging ahead with a thumping 34-point lead, giving her a boost after a rocky couple of days and leaving Sunak scrambling to salvage his fading chances of victory.

That poll in full: The YouGov survey for the Times and Times Radio suggests that almost nine in 10 Tory members have made up their mind about who to support, with 60 percent plumping for Truss and just 26 percent for Sunak. The fieldwork was carried out over the last five days with more than 1,000 members. Here’s Oli Wright’s write-up.

What it tells us: The findings serve as a corrective after a difficult couple of days for Truss’ campaign, which contributed to niggling doubts over whether she is on course to win the contest. But last night’s poll cements her position as the front-runner, suggesting that she is ahead among Tory members of all age groups, genders and across different parts of the U.K.

Awks: The only category where Sunak beats Truss is — surely infuriatingly for him — among Remain voters.

Word from camp Liz: A Truss campaign source told Playbook: “This reflects exactly what we are seeing with members around the country. Members are making up their mind, and they are supporting Liz. Her bold and ambitious plan for the country and economy is uniting Conservatives right across our nation. But we are certainly not complacent — Liz is fighting for every vote, meeting as many members as possible.”

The burning question is: How far should we trust these kinds of results? Chris Curtis, head of political polling at Opinium, ran Playbook through the difficulties of polling Conservative Party members — but said that, all in all, the conclusion that Truss has a considerable lead seems the right one.

Polling problems: “It’s so difficult to do, firstly because there’s not that many Conservative Party members and it’s incredibly difficult to find them,” Curtis said. “Secondly, we have absolutely no idea what their demographic profile is — the party either doesn’t know it or doesn’t publish it. And thirdly, we all expect a very large proportion of members to be very old people in their 80s and 90s, who are less likely to be online … I’ve never felt less confident in polls that I’m running than I feel right now.”

On that note: Britain’s favorite election guru John Curtice has written a piece for the Times analyzing what this latest poll shows. Unfortunately for Sunak, he is winning the support of members who back the more unpopular positions in the party, such as waiting to cut taxes or opposing sending asylum seekers to Rwanda. But the problem for Truss — who is hoovering up votes from the Tory right — is that she will struggle to occupy the electoral center ground later on, Curtice notes.

GCHQ vs. CCHQ: Sunak, who is frantically racing against the clock to turn things around at hustings and meetings with the party grassroots, has had one small stroke of luck — ballot papers haven’t made their way onto members’ kitchen tables quite yet. The Spectator’s James Heale and the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reveal that GCHQ raised concerns about the security of the voting process, warning that plans to allow members to change their votes by casting online ballots after posting their paper ones could make the process vulnerable to hackers. A letter sent to party members last night sought to reassure them that their ballot was “on the way … a little later than we originally said.” Anyone voting online will now have to type in a unique code they receive in the mail which will be deactivated after use, and changing your vote will not be possible. A Tory source told Playbook that ballots were still expected to start arriving later this week, though members have been told to alert CCHQ if they don’t receive anything by August 11.

Not giving up: A Sunak campaign source pointed out that Truss’ event in Devon yesterday attracted 25 people — while the former chancellor had more than 230 in north Dorset the day before. “Whisper it — the Truss ground war isn’t going well,” they said.

Happening today: Both leadership candidates are meeting Tory members in Wales and England before the hustings. Sunak is doing visits in Ludlow and Cardiff, while Truss is touring Herefordshire and Monmouthshire.

And what to expect tonight: The hustings will be chaired by broadcaster Hannah Vaughan Jones and follow an identical format to the last two, with the candidates taking turns to make short statements before being quizzed by the host and then party members.

TRUSS TROUBLES: You wouldn’t know it from those YouGov figures, but Truss has had a tricky start to the week, first with the publication of findings from a private Techne poll which suggested Sunak was closing in on her and then a screeching U-turn on public sector pay cuts yesterday.

It all began with: A Truss campaign press release on Monday that declared “war on Whitehall waste” and said she would introduce regional boards to set public sector pay according to the cost of living in each area — a policy it claimed would save the taxpayer £8.8 billion.  

Cue the following: Team Sunak and other critics quickly pointed out that those savings were only possible if all public sector workers, including teachers, police officers and nurses in the poorest parts of Britain, were given significant pay cuts. Team Truss circulated a message to reporters just before noon yesterday — just 19 hours after the policy was unveiled — insisting there would be “no proposal taken forward on regional pay boards for civil servants or public sector workers.” The FT’s George Parker sums it up as “a case study of the danger in photocopying a Taxpayers’ Alliance press release — adding a few billion — and presenting it as a programme for government.”

Not only that: The Truss campaign sought to avoid embarrassment by accusing opponents of “wilful misrepresentation” — notwithstanding the fact its own release stated repeatedly that Truss would “introduce regional pay boards” and boasted that by doing so “civil servant pay can be adjusted in line with the actual areas where civil servants work, saving billions.”

Sunak fightback: Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen was out batting for Team Sunak last night, telling Channel 4 that Truss had made “a huge slip up” and got the policy “horribly wrong” in what might one day be seen as her “dementia tax moment.”

LGBTQ+ endorsement fail: In another less than ideal story for Truss, my POLITICO colleague Esther Webber reports today that her team bungled an attempt to gain an endorsement from the official LGBT+ Conservatives groups for her record on equalities. Esther has spoken to party activists who said the attempted overture was misguided in view of many LGBTQ+ members’ unhappiness over her stance on trans rights. “She’s been equalities minister for nearly three years and I cannot point to one thing that she’s done for minorities,” one member tells her.

In a more helpful intervention: Truss has been formally backed by the Daily Mail, hot on the heels of yesterday’s Telegraph endorsement. “Miss Truss has grown visibly in stature as this contest has progressed. From an awkward start she has relaxed and connected with the party faithful,” the Mail full-page leader says. “Blessed with Yorkshire grit, Miss Truss has the boldness, imagination and strength of conviction to tap into it and build on what Boris began.” Meanwhile the Times’ George Grylls notes an endorsement from Tory donor Andrew Law, a hedge fund manager who has given £3 million to the Conservative Party.

HOT OFF THE PRESS: POLITICO’s list of who every Tory MP is backing has been updated, meaning you can scan through the latest endorsements on our leadership race hub here. There are also handy charts breaking down Truss and Sunak’s support in the party by Brexit vote, type of seat and more.

Already checked out: Boris Johnson is off on holiday from today — though No. 10 remains tight-lipped on where he’s going. As he sets off to wherever, he’ll be cheered to read that last night’s YouGov poll found Tory members are very pissed off about the way he was removed from office — and that were he on the ballot paper, he’d comfortably beat both Truss and Sunak.

**During this shift of power in the Tory party, POLITICO Pro helps you keep track of all policy developments. Our UK newsroom follows cross-Channel relations closely to make sure you don’t miss any policy news. Request a free demo.**

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP

BBC FURORE: Truss has pledged to conduct a review into decriminalizing non-payment of the BBC license fee. In an interview with the Mail’s John Stevens she said she was particularly concerned about the disproportionate number of women who have ended up in prison over it.

A refresher: Playbook revealed last month that Rishi Sunak suggested during a leadership hustings with MPs that he was minded to review the license fee system, triggering some furious briefings from Truss allies in government who accused him of blocking such a move while chancellor. Nadine Dorries has since publicly accused Sunak of refusing to sign off on the licence fee review she’d been pushing for.

One thing everyone can agree on: Both Truss and Sunak have said they would invite the Lionesses to No. 10 to celebrate their Euros victory after an apparent snub by Johnson. The Sun has a write-up.

PREVENT, WIDER: Today Sunak unveils proposals to stem the spread of Islamist ideology in prisons by keeping jihadists apart from other inmates. He also pledges to widen the Prevent program and ensure it prioritizes tackling Islamist extremism over other threats such as far-right terrorism. The Times has a write-up. The Guardian has former counter-terrorism chief Peter Fahy warning that widening Prevent to cover those who “vilify” Britain risks “straying into thought crimes and political opinions.”

BEYOND THE LEADERSHIP RACE

PARLIAMENT: In recess.

TAIWAN SHOWDOWN: China’s ambassador to the U.K. Zheng Zeguang gave a rare press conference yesterday as tensions with the United States escalated further over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Beijing announced three days of live-fire military drills shortly after Pelosi touched down in the afternoon — the BBC has more.

Warning shot: Zheng cautioned British MPs not to “dance to the tune of the United States” and set foot on the self-governing island, vowing “severe consequences” if they do. The Guardian’s Vincent Ni has a write-up of his comments, and Sky’s Deborah Haynes has a Twitter thread of the main headlines.

What it means: The next PM is likely to have a very tense geopolitical situation on their hands later this autumn. Ni reported in the Guardian on Monday that the Commons foreign affairs committee is planning to visit Taiwan later this year, probably in November or December. Tom Tugendhat is currently the committee chair, but is tipped for a job in the new Cabinet come September.

Bigger picture: The Atlantic’s Tom McTague takes a look at the evolution of U.K.’s approach to Beijing, arguing it has evolved to stay close to the Americans’ hardening stance in the past few years. When he puts this to Truss she rejects it. “That was not the reason we changed,” she tells McTague. “We changed because it was the right thing to do.” McTague notes the signs that Johnson sought to soften the stance he was effectively forced into by his party by gearing up economic cooperation this year. Your Playbook author had a run-down of where Sunak and Truss stand on China last week.

BAIN BAN: Bain & Co, a Boston-based management consultant, has been banned from tendering for U.K. government contracts for three years over its “grave professional misconduct” in a major corruption scandal in South Africa. The FT reveals in its splash that the U.K. is the first Western country to impose penalties on the company over its role in the “state capture” in South Africa, piling pressure on the U.S. to follow suit. The move follows a decision by Jacob Rees-Mogg to seek detailed advice on the matter, including from an external QC, after Cabinet Office officials originally advised no action was necessary.

LABOUR IN KNOTS: Are Labour frontbenchers allowed to attend picket lines in a show of solidarity with striking workers? No one knows, but Keir Starmer’s going to clarify it for everyone after he gets back from his holiday on August 15, the Guardian’s Heather Stewart reports. One party adviser describes LOTO’s handling of this issue to her as “a car crash.”

As a refresher: Pictures of Lisa Nandy chatting to striking CWU members earlier this week set off another round of head-scratching and handwringing over the party’s stance on the strikes. Nandy’s office insisted she had given LOTO advance warning and the Guardian hears that no action will be taken against her. Sam Tarry was sacked from the front bench last week after giving broadcast interviews from the picket line — but ostensibly for making up policy on the hoof rather than anything else.

Labour tribunal: Labour MP Khalid Mahmood unfairly sacked his adviser and ex-girlfried Elaina Cohen after she sent him a series of messages describing him as an “insecure crooked womanizer” and — in one email copied to Keir Starmer — a “first class idiot,” an employment tribunal has ruled. The Telegraph has a write-up of the conclusions.

Meanwhile in political Siberia: Jeremy Corbyn has given an interview to TV channel Al Mayadeen, which has carried pro-Russia reporting since the invasion of Ukraine, criticizing the West for arming Ukraine and warning it will “prolong and exaggerate this war.” The Guardian has a write-up.

JOURNOS REJOICE: Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar will pledge today to overhaul Scotland’s FOI laws as part of the party’s platform for reforming the U.K. He’ll call on Holyrood to extend FOI legislation to all public bodies and create what will seemingly be called a “presumption in favor of proactive publication” to speed up FOI responses. Playbook will believe that second one when we see it. The policy will be included in the second of a series of Scottish Labour papers on reforming the U.K., which will be launched in Edinburgh this morning.

Yesterday in Scotland: The SNP submitted an application to intervene in their court battle for indyref2, meaning the party wants to join the Scottish government’s top lawyer Dorothy Bain when she makes the case in October for Holyrood’s power to hold a referendum. The BBC has the details.

ANOTHER SNP SLEAZE STORY: An SNP councillor has been reported to prosecutors for allegedly stealing from a police station of all places, the Times’ Kieran Andrews reveals. The councillor and Police Scotland employee, Allan Stubbs, is accused of stealing property from Motherwell police station. When reached by the newspaper he said: “I don’t know what the allegations are that you’re talking about … to be honest my work life and my public life are very separate.”

UKRAINE UPDATE: Moscow has for the first time accused the U.S. of being directly involved in the war in Ukraine, through finding and approving Russian targets for Kyiv missiles. The Pentagon told the BBC — which has the full story here — that it only provided Ukrainians with “detailed, time-sensitive information to help them understand the threats they face and defend their country.”

MEDIA ROUND

Sky News breakfast: Labour national campaign coordinator Shabana Mahmood (7.20 a.m.) … Sunak supporter David Davis (8.05 a.m.) … Truss supporter Brandon Lewis (8.30 a.m.).

Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Shabana Mahmood (7.10 a.m.) … Brandon Lewis (7.50 a.m.) … Member of the Chief of the Defense Staff’s advisory panel Gwyn Prins (8.35 a.m.) … Sunak supporter Gillian Keegan (8.50 a.m.).

Times Radio: Polling guru John Curtice (7.20 a.m.) … Brandon Lewis (7.35 a.m.) … David Davis (8.15 a.m.) … Shabana Mahmood.

TalkTV breakfast: David Davis (7.20 a.m.) … Brandon Lewis (8.05 a.m.).

GB News breakfast: Brandon Lewis (8.45 a.m.) … Sunak supporter Fay Jones (9.05 a.m.).

Cross question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): NEU Joint General Secretary Mary Bousted … Former Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib … Former Corbyn spokesperson Matt Zarb-Cousin … ConservativeHome’s Harry Phibbs.

Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and the Telegraph’s Olivia Utley.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)

Daily Express: Truss — Only I can deliver growth Britain needs.

Daily Mail: China’s chilling threat over U.S. trip to Taiwan.

Daily Mirror: Brazen profiteers.

Daily Star: Greedy bleeders.

Financial Times: Bain barred from U.K. contracts for ‘grave misconduct’ in South Africa.

i: So much for the legacy — Department for Education refuses to give girls equal football in PE.

Metro: Heartbreak for Archie’s family.

POLITICO UK: Italy confronts its fascist past as migration dominates election.

PoliticsHome: Liz Truss U-turns on ‘politically suicidal’ public sector pay plans.

The Daily Telegraph: Hacking warning delays Tory vote.

The Guardian: Outrage as oil firms rake in huge profits while bills soar.

The Independent: Truss forced to abandon pay cuts after Tory revolt.

The Sun: I rang Coleen and said: What the f*** is this? — Says Becky Vardy.

The Times: 60 percent of Tory membership prefer Truss for next PM.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ☁️☁️☁️ Cloudy and breezy. Highs of 27C.

IN MEMORIAM: Roy Hackett, a hero of the U.K. civil rights movement and leading figure in the Bristol Bus Boycott of 1963, has died. BBC Radio Bristol tweeted the news late last night.

IN TRIBUTE: Dogs Trust’s Westminster Dog of the Year award have renamed one of their titles in honor of the late David Amess, whose French bulldog Vivienne won last year’s gong.

SPOTTED: Truss backers Kwasi Kwarteng and Tom Tugendhat having coffee at a Westminster Pret yesterday.

Also spotted: A quartet of past and present Sun pol-eds — Harry Cole, Tom Newton Dunn, Trevor Kavanagh and George Pascoe-Watson — having dinner at the Savile Club in Mayfair. Group pic here.

Birthdays: Shadow Leader of the Commons Thangam Debbonaire … Former Home Secretary Jack Straw … Former Armed Forces Minister Nick Harvey … CNN’s Luke McGee … Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: Editor Ali Walker, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

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Eleni Courea

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/poll-puts-truss-34-points-up-hustings-in-cardiff-taiwan-showdown/

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