Hours to avert war — Power couples 2022 — Johnson in Scotland

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By ALEX WICKHAM

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Good Monday morning.

POWER COUPLES 2022: Happy Valentine’s Day … it’s that time of year again, when POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson runs the rule over Westminster’s top 40 power couples. Can you name No. 10’s three leading love matches? Which Treasury SpAds are getting married in the summer? Which Labour pairing might soon shoot up the list? And who found love in the Lobby? Join the hundreds of SpAds, civil servants, hacks and SW1 gossips who will be reading Annabelle’s piece this morning to find out who’s made the list.

DRIVING THE DAY

HOURS TO AVERT WAR: Western leaders will spend the next 48 hours mounting a final effort to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from launching another invasion of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence warned that an attack could be imminent and happen as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, though the Biden administration also said it still does not know whether Putin has made a decision on whether to go to war. Boris Johnson will hold talks with allies and is expected to visit Europe again this week, as the U.K. government said a Russian offensive was “highly likely.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Putin in Moscow on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to bring him back from the brink. Back in Westminster we are in a parliamentary recess, with the prime minister embarking on a tour of Scotland and northern England this morning to push his leveling up agenda, and Labour hitting the government on crime. Domestic politics is very much down the news agenda however as the crisis in Ukraine dominates.

Latest Stateside: U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gave interviews to CBS and CNN on Sunday in which he said American intelligence suggested Russia could invade “any day now” and that an assault on Ukraine could happen “very, very rapidly,” following a “dramatic escalation” in the build-up of more than 130,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. Sullivan repeated the U.S. assessment that Russia could stage a false flag operation to provide a pretext for war. He said the world should be prepared for “a pretext or a false flag operation to kick off the Russian action in which Russian intelligence services conduct some kind of attack on Russian proxy forces in eastern Ukraine or on Russian citizens, and then blame it on the Ukrainians.” The Sunday Telegraph’s Ed Malnick and Roland Oliphant also led with this line. POLITICO’s Connor O’Brien has the key remarks from Sullivan’s Sunday interview round.

The US intel is remarkably specific: At a briefing for allies on Friday, U.S. intelligence included a reference to Wednesday, February 16, as a possible start date for a Russian ground invasion, three officials — based in Washington, London and Ukraine — told POLITICO‘s David Herszenhorn and team. Bloomberg’s Alberto Nardelli, Jennifer Jacobs and Jennifer Epstein reported that American intel believed Russia’s action could start as soon as Tuesday, though stressed it still doesn’t know whether Putin has made a final decision. Sources told them Russia could instigate a provocation in Ukraine’s Donbass region, or launch an attack on the capital, Kyiv. U.S. President Joe Biden spoke to Putin on Saturday but the call did not appear to achieve any resolution, with Biden vowing “swift and severe costs on Russia” if it invades. POLITICO’s Myah Ward and Paul McCleary have a write-up.

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What’s behind the briefing war? The U.S. and other Western governments have been remarkably open about sharing their intelligence assessments about Russia’s activities in recent weeks, both on the record and in briefings to the media. The New York Times has a fascinating story by Julian Barnes and Helene Cooper describing the “extraordinary series of disclosures” as “one of the most aggressive releases of intelligence by the United States since the Cuban missile crisis.” Britain has also been closely involved in this campaign, with Foreign Secretary Liz Truss revealing intelligence suggesting Russia could attempt to install a pro-Kremlin puppet in Kyiv. According to U.S. officials in the NYT, the reasons for declassifying this information include disrupting Putin’s plans, delaying the invasion and buying more time for diplomacy, giving Putin a chance to reconsider the costs to Russia, as well as making it harder for Russia to spread disinformation about any false flag attack and exposing Putin as dishonest on the international stage.

Could this change Putin’s mind? In the Washington Post, the Carnegie Endowment’s Daniel Baer argues: “The Russians seem a bit shell shocked by the information onslaught and perhaps a bit unsure of how to respond … A lot of people know more about how false flag attacks work now than they did a month ago. If Putin were to use that approach, it would no longer come as a shock — and confirmation of, and consequences for, such tactics would come more swiftly. Broadcasting Putin’s possible plans also strengthens the impression that allies could quickly present a unified response to any action, presumably amplifying any deterrent effect. And so the tables have turned: Instead of the West playing whack-a-mole, refuting various lies propagated by Russia, Russia is now in the position of denying the potential plots it may be hatching with respect to Ukraine.”

What’s the Kremlin saying? Moscow has of course always denied it has any intention of invading Ukraine, despite amassing huge numbers of troops at its border. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Sunday suggested one possible outcome to the crisis: “After Russian troops finish drills and return to barracks, West will declare ‘diplomatic victory’ by having ‘secured’ Russian ‘de-escalation.’” Lavrov called this a “predictable scenario and cheap domestic political points.” A senior U.K. security source tells talkTV’s Tom Newton Dunn these remarks offer a “ray of hope” that Russia might decide against war.

What happens next: The Guardian’s Eastern Europe reporter Shaun Walker reckons there are three possible outcomes: “Either there will be an invasion and we’ll realise US was right. Or there won’t be but in 20/50 years we’ll find out the CIA had insane intel capability in Moscow and really averted a war. Or it’s the most crazily irresponsible messaging imaginable.” When Playbook presented those scenarios to a U.K. government source, they rejected the third option and said they hoped the second would come to pass.

Not keen on spy games: It should be said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been critical of the Western efforts to publicize Putin’s alleged plans, instead calling for calm, demanding to see more evidence and claiming that the briefings are “provoking panic.” It’s likely that a key factor in Zelenskiy’s thinking is the economic impact of the continuing threat of war. Many airlines canceled or diverted flights to Ukraine over the weekend amid the warnings. In a sign of how financially costly the continuing speculation is for Ukraine, Zelenskiy last night announced a $600 million fund to underwrite flights following insurers’ decisions to remove cover.

Moving pictures: Several of today’s British newspapers carry front-page photos of Valentyna Kostantynovska, a 79-year-old Ukrainian woman pictured holding a Kalashnikov while receiving weapons training in Donetsk. Igor Kossov reports for POLITICO that Ukrainians are flocking to join the Territorial Defense Force, a new military branch consisting of well-trained civilian reservists around the country, led by professional soldiers.

Out in the cold: Zelenskiy held another call with Biden on Sunday night, inviting him to travel to Kyiv “in the coming days.” Zelenskiy told Biden: “I am convinced that your arrival in Kyiv in the coming days, which are crucial for stabilizing the situation, will be a powerful signal and contribute to de-escalation.” U.S. media reported that Biden is not going to make the visit, probably for obvious reasons. Instead, CBS said the U.S. is preparing to withdraw all American personnel from Kyiv within 48 hours. Western governments evacuating diplomatic staff from Kyiv are setting up temporary embassies in Lviv, a Ukrainian city near the Polish border, POLITICO’s America Hernandez reports. Ukraine also spent yesterday seeking a meeting with Russia demanding it explain its build-up of troops, under the so-called Vienna Document adopted by countries in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (which includes Russia). Late last night, Russia reportedly rejected the request for the meeting.

One to watch: Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K., told BBC Radio 5Live’s Stephen Nolan last night that the country might consider withdrawing its objective of joining NATO if that would prevent war.

Braving Kyiv: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is traveling to Kyiv today for talks with Zelenskiy, before heading to Moscow for a summit with Putin. German officials briefed POLITICO and the FT that they still hoped diplomacy could achieve a peaceful outcome though played down the likelihood of Scholz achieving a breakthrough.

Johnson’s week: Downing Street said last night that Boris Johnson was working “tirelessly” with Britain’s allies to prevent a “disastrous” war in Ukraine. Johnson will receive daily intelligence briefings from security chiefs on the activities of Russian forces, and hold calls with other world leaders focusing on the Nordic and Baltic states, POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson reports. The PM will travel to Europe again “later this week,” No. 10 said.

Where’s Wallace? Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has canceled a family holiday to focus on the crisis, he announced in a tweet that definitely, definitely wasn’t a snipe at a certain other Cabinet minister who famously didn’t do that during the Afghanistan debacle last summer. Wallace’s remarks to the Sunday Times’ Caroline Wheeler and Larisa Brown that there was a “whiff of Munich” about some Western countries’ diplomatic efforts with Putin gets plenty of pick-up in today’s papers. Thursday’s Playbook reported how London was concerned by French President Emmanuel Macron’s loose negotiating style with Putin and Paris’ optimistic claims to have de-escalated the situation. Wallace will head to Brussels later this week for a meeting of NATO defense ministers.

Truss vs. Dave: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will tour NATO’s eastern flank in the coming days, the Times’ David Charter, George Grylls and Larisa Brown report. A Foreign Office source tells the Telegraph’s Lucy Fisher and James Rothwell that Truss wants to lead international work on the response to Russia and adds: “We were too absent during Crimea in 2014, which she sees as a mistake that we can’t repeat and aren’t repeating.”

Can Britain do more? If Russia does invade, ministers will face scrutiny over the level of sanctions they introduce against Russia. Foreign affairs committee Chair Tom Tugendhat tweeted a lengthy analysis calling for the U.K. to close its markets to Russian firms, expel the families of those linked to Putin’s regime and act to end Russian corruption and “dirty money” in London. Armed Forces Minister James Heappey has an op-ed in the Times which promises “the financial sanctions that are being prepared won’t last for weeks, they’ll endure for years.” Heappey is on the morning broadcast round for the government.

Now read this: POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo and Matei Rosca report that the U.K.’s longstanding money-laundering-enabling loopholes may be about to end, amid intense pressure from Washington.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

HOUSE OF COMMONS: In recess until February 21.

JOHNSON IN SCOTLAND: Boris Johnson might be focusing mainly on Ukraine but he is doing it remotely today as he embarks on what is being billed as a “leveling up tour” of the U.K. The PM will be in Scotland and northern England and Playbook is told he will do a broadcast clip in the late morning. Sky’s Jon Craig says Johnson wants to get out of London and “see how the government is delivering on the people’s priorities across the country.” Presumably a meeting with Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross will not be in the itinerary.

Partygate latest: Johnson received his Partygate questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police over the weekend and has until the end of the week to respond. There is speculation that the police investigation could finish sooner than previously feared, as the cops may be able to make judgments on whether to issue fixed penalty notices pretty quickly after the responses come back. We’re in a bit of a holding pattern again on this story until the police finish, with Tory MPs unlikely to send letters of no confidence this week during recess and the Ukraine crisis, barring any shock developments. The Mail on Sunday’s Glen Owen revealed Johnson will ban No. 10 staff from using the Downing Street garden.

Joke island: Some might think it’s a curious situation that the government will now get to choose the next chief of the Met Police at the same time as it investigates the PM and his team for allegedly breaking the law, in a decision that could decide the fate of his premiership. Michael Barber, who is chairing the government’s own policing review, agreed that the situation makes choosing the next Met chief “much more difficult,” speaking to POLITICO’s Jack Blanchard on Times Radio yesterday.

Labour punching the crime bruise: Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper proposed five policing reforms yesterday: Including violence against women and girls in Home Office’s requirement to tackle internal policing problems … overhaul of police misconduct proceedings … overhaul of police training … overhaul of social media use … and an overhaul of whistleblowing structures. Labour leader Keir Starmer is also touring the north this week and is in Sunderland today, where he’ll “condemn the rise of youth violence under the Conservatives” and reveal the cost of youth violent crime since 2010 has been £10 billion. He’ll be doing a “Call Keir” phone-in on BBC Radio Newcastle at 8 a.m.

Completing the Labour crime hat-trick … is Shadow Justice Secretary Steve Reed, who tells the Mirror’s Dan Bloom: “When [Jeremy] Corbyn was the leader, we gave the impression that we were more concerned about the criminals than about their victims.” Reed also says Labour is looking at a naming-and-shaming scheme for people who buy illegal drugs.

Uh oh: The Met are investigating death threats made against Starmer after Johnson’s Jimmy Savile claims. The Times’ George Grylls has the story.

Dowden on tour: Tory Chairman Oliver Dowden is visiting the U.S. this week. After Johnson said he wanted him to be “Cecil Parkinson without the shagging” as he restored the role of party chairman to a senior cabinet role, Dowden will be giving a keynote speech to the Heritage Foundation think tank “on how wokery is dividing and weakening us at a time where we must be confident in our values against threats from authoritarian states.” The Mail on Sunday’s Glen Owen had a detailed preview of what is increasingly looking like some key election posturing from the Tories on how the “intellectual forces of the Right should unite against woke warriors,” and the Tories need a “clear attack line in future “culture wars.” You’ll be able to watch Dowden’s speech here.

Unity latest: Playbook’s Eleni Courea has some WhatsApp screenshots showing Tory MP Jackie Doyle-Price accusing government loyalists Nadine Dorries and Conor Burns of “astonishing revisionism” when they argued Tory MPs should back Johnson to avoid “crushing, miserable defeat” and the “traumas” of the John Major years.

Peace in our time: European leaders are proposing a new European Security Council to counter future geopolitical challenges … headed by Britain. The Telegraph’s Joe Barnes has the story.

**What can society learn from the women who have made it to the top? Find out more and hear from Nadia Calviño, first deputy prime minister and minister of economy and digitalization, Spain. Register today to our Women’s Day Interview on March 8 at 1:30 p.m. CET to discuss this and much more.**

NHS race audit: A review commissioned by the NHS Race and Health Observatory has called for radical action to tackle “overwhelming” ethnic minority health inequalities in the health service. The Guardian’s Andrew Gregory splashes the story.

Where’s the housing minister? Yet more astonishing revelations from campaigner Kwajo Tweneboa about the ongoing national scandal of the appalling state of some of Britain’s social housing. It says it all that it takes someone repeatedly exposing the horrific conditions on Twitter to shame housing associations (let alone ministers) into doing anything about it.

Yikes: Water companies are releasing raw sewage into rivers more than 1,000 times a day, Telegraph analysis reveals. The paper is launching a “clean rivers” campaign in response “to stop water companies, industrial agriculture and urban waste from polluting England’s beauty spot.” Given the level of social media anger on this issue last year, a Tory paper launching a campaign on it will concern ministers and MPs.

MIND YOUR CHINESE PHONES: Belgian intelligence authorities have said that Chinese phones made by Huawei and Xiaomi pose a risk of espionage. That’s according to Belgium’s Justice Minister Vincent Van Quickenborne, who wrote a parliamentary reply to MP Samuel Cogolati — seen by POLITICO’s Stuart Lau — stating that: “A relatively large amount of information is available in open sources about problematic privacy and security settings of some smartphones. In combination with the legal framework in which Chinese smartphone producers operate, the State Security Service (VSSE) considers that there is at least a risk of unwanted data transfer to the Chinese authority and therefore of espionage.”

Brexit no longer ruining love lives: The years of Brexit divisions in relationships are over, according to Valentine’s Day polling by Stack Data Strategy seen by Playbook. Nearly three-quarters of Leave voters (72 percent) said they would be open to dating a Remain voter. For those on the Remain side of the debate, willingness to date your opposite number is lower at 57 percent. That’s a lot more open-minded than it has been in recent years. More than half of the population (56 percent) are turned off at the prospect of dating someone who has not had their COVID vaccine.

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MEDIA ROUND

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey media round: Sky News (7.05 a.m) … Today program (7.10 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.20 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Good Morning Britain (8.30 a.m.) … Talk Radio (9.05 a.m.) … GB News (9.20 a.m.)

Shadow Policing Minister Sarah Jones media round: Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (8.35 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.).

Also on the Today program: Estonian President Alar Karis (8.10 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Defense Select Committee Chair Tobias Ellwood (7.15 a.m.)

Also on Times Radio breakfast: NATO’s Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe Richard Shirreff (8.07 a.m.) … Food poverty campaigner Jack Monroe (8.15 a.m.) … Janet Hills, first female chair of the Black Police Association (9.05 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)

Daily Express: Boris urges Putin to step ‘back from brink.’

Daily Mail: Frantic 48 hours to save Europe from war.

Daily Mirror: Countdown to War.

Daily Star: Deadly Dudley to hit 100mph.

Financial Times: Scholz plans fresh Ukraine talks.

HuffPost UK: TV reboots have a ‘representation’ problem.

i: Tensions rise in Ukraine as West steps up efforts to stop invasion.

Metro: West can’t Vladi scare Putin.

POLITICO UK: Under US pressure, UK Tories pledge to change tack on dirty money.

PoliticsHome: Brandon Lewis confirms British troops will not be deployed to Ukraine.

The Daily Telegraph: PM urges Russia to step back from brink.

The Guardian: Damning race report reveals vast inequalities across health service.

The Times: Leaders in final push to avert Ukraine invasion.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Light cloud and a bit of a breeze. Highs of 10C.

BIRTHDAYS: Commons public accounts committee Chairwoman Meg Hillier … Blyth Valley MP Ian Levy … Old Bexley and Sidcup MP Louie French … Former Labour MP Pat Glass … Lib Dem Lords leader Dick Newby … Former Director of Public Prosecutions Alison Saunders … Tory peer John MacGregor … Crossbench peer David Wilson … Welsh Labour AM Dawn Bowden.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

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